Like every year, there continues to be rampant speculation as to just how competitive this Oilers team is, and where exactly we should expect them to finish.
As usual there's a large disconnect between viewpoints, with as I've seen it, the prevailing stance for why the Oilers will do well focused around things like "many players can't possibly be any worse", "New coaches bring new tickle trunks, non-divisive attitudes, and make their lines with love not blenders" etc...
Which is all well and good except for one major problem. It's all Oiler focused.
In determining where a team is going to place it's equally important to know the competition as to know oneself.
With where the team stands now this is a concept that seems to resonate strongest with the people who have the opposite of high hopes for the coming season. It's not that our talent is bad...it isn't. The problem is that the talent we're up against across the league is far too often just as good or better. Parity has hit.
With that in mind I figured it might be useful to put the competition out there in consolidated plain sight.
Now instead of doing some sort of player by player analysis for all lineups across the league I think the point can be garnered just as well by looking at only the west. Even further to look just at top six F, top 4 D, and starting goalie.
I'm sure not everyone will agree with such an approach but I think it's fair enough to suggest that the Oilers bottom six F, bottom two D, and backup goalie are right in the realm of average on the whole as relative to the competition, and thus not a largely determining factor one way or the other.
To put it as simply as possible I really don't think leaving out the bottom parts of the roster will take away from the bigger picture of how these teams matchup.
As much as I went through and evaluated each player relative to the Oilers on a position by position basis, this is the opposite of a scientific analysis. I tried to be as objective as possible, in fact always giving the benefit of the doubt to the Oiler players where contentious, but ultimately it's entirely subjective so I'd hope no one gets too hung up on any of them. Oh, and they were also done with only the following year in mind i.e., which player is likely bringing better value/impact to the table next year only.
The main point is to lay it out there to try and see how our core reasonably compares to the cores of our primary competition.
On that note my own edge determinations will be given in the form of comic book heros...as in top superheros (villans for the douchey teams) like Superman and Batman representing a significant edge and lame heros like Jubilee, Robin, and Matter-Eater Lad representing the very slightest of edges.
These five teams seem to be extremely close overall and I can't say I'd be surprised to see any of their names at any of those numbers. In particular with LA/STL/DAL our offense gets blown out of the water. As much star power as our D/G might have, will their actual results be enough to cover the spread?
14. Phoenix
15. Colorado
The only two teams we seem to have a decided advantage against.
The first thing that occurs to me is the Heatley deal. If it does indeed go through obviously that changes things a fair bit and it probably offsets things enough to for sure get the Oilers into the post season.
As a corollary there are some potential impact players like Tanguay and Prospal who could also have an effect on any team. While this is the case, I think at this point it's really not much of a stretch to envision the above rosters as extremely close to what will be headed into next season.
That aside I think the most disconcerting thing in all of this, and perhaps where we can get the greatest level of clarification, is that any edge the Oilers appear to have on teams down to 13th overall is very slim.
So while I personally would have us slotted in at 9th with a decent enough chance at 7th or 8th, it's just as, if not more, likely that we could slide down to a sub-10 slot if only a few snags show up.
On that note while I really don't think it's unreasonable for someone to see us ducking into the playoffs, it's equally reasonable to see us having an abysmal finish this year.
When you take it one step further and factor in that of all those 6-13 teams are spending substantially less than the Oilers (excepting Minnesota), it becomes probably even easier to understand why some people tend towards darker skies ahead.
And for anyone who thinks we're going to be contending for the division or in danger of becoming a world-beater squad...well I'm sorry, but it's probably time for a reality check.
Calgary, Vancouver, Chicago, Detroit, and others have had all there players reach almost full potential or at least have had a lot of over achievers in the last 2 years. The Oilers have been huge underachievers and have many players on the verge of breaking out. Grebs, Gagner, Cogs, Nillson, PattyO, Smid to name a few.
thats how teams do well... look at montreal last year.. andrei and sergei kostitsyn, plekanec, kovalev and higgins all had tremendous years.. they finished 1st in the conference.. look at boston this year... Krejci, lucic, kessel, wideman, and thomas all had very good years... they finished 1st in the conference.. If we get breakout seasons from Gagner, Cogliano, O'sullivan, and lets go with deslauries for kicks... theres a very good chance we will be in the top 6 in the west.
thats how teams do well... look at montreal last year.. andrei and sergei kostitsyn, plekanec, kovalev and higgins all had tremendous years.. they finished 1st in the conference.. look at boston this year... Krejci, lucic, kessel, wideman, and thomas all had very good years... they finished 1st in the conference.. If we get breakout seasons from Gagner, Cogliano, O'sullivan, and lets go with deslauries for kicks... theres a very good chance we will be in the top 6 in the west.
Too True.. boston was ranked amoung many as a team that would battle for a playoff spot this year. And they land themselves in first. Thats one of the best things about hockey, you never know where the bounces will land.
I could see the Oilers beating the Kings, Flames, and maybe Blues for 8th as these could go either way even without a big signing. Nice job on the post.
Calgary, Vancouver, Chicago, Detroit, and others have had all there players reach almost full potential or at least have had a lot of over achievers in the last 2 years. The Oilers have been huge underachievers and have many players on the verge of breaking out. Grebs, Gagner, Cogs, Nillson, PattyO, Smid to name a few.
Calgary- Boyd, ?
Vancouver- hodgson, Edler, ?
Calgary has Boyd, Sjostrom, Dawes, Jaffrey and Sutter.
Vancouver has Hodgson, Edler, Hansen, Rypien, Shirokov and Grabner and Kesler is actually the same age as O'Sullivan and Nilsson and younger than Grebs.
And don't even get me started on STL, LA, Columbus or Phoenix, they all have many more prospects who could "break out".
Well this is exactly the type of response I was hoping for in that most people are going to have their own unique views on how the players stack up.
Off the top of my head I'm not even sure which method I prefer, but it definitely gives things a different look matching up by relative value as opposed to specific position.
While I'd certainly debate you on a few of those matchups the one I'm most curious about right now is Samuelsson. I mean I've seen some Canucks fans mocking him into 1RW but what business does he have there as an otherwise career third liner? Especially usurping Burrows who I always thought brought chemistry and grit to working with the Sedins?
Ultimately the most interesting thing to me though is that even with all the differences you're proposing the essential picture still stays the same.
Maybe you'll clarify but if I had to guess based on what you're saying you might rank the teams like this: 1. Det 2. Chi 3. SJ 4. Van 5. Ana 6. Cgy 7. La 8. Stl 9. Clb 10. Dal 11. Edm 12. Min 13. Nsh 14. Phx 15. Col ?
Which is still essentially the same general picture as I saw it. Edm could easily slip lower in the standings and it'll be almost impossible to even touch the teams in the top 6.
Cheech, Marley, Im sensing a theme here................. I think we need a doobie smoking smilie.
You have Columbus ranked way too far down. They will be in the playoffs for sure.
Stand up for your rights and get that doobie smoking smiley rolling!
Yeah CLB is just one of those teams that I don't like/believe in talent wise...I was entirely surprised to see them do so well last year, and while they probably won't drop as low as 13th, I fully expect to see them slide a bit with so many others taking steps forward.
Once their top six boasts Nash/Filatov/Brassard/Voracek all in full flight though...yikes.
Boyes is not even close to the player Hemsky is.. he can score but he's absolutely horrible defensively, not sayin' Hemsky is good defensively, but Boyes is just awful.
BTW, major props to the OP, must have taken forever but the pictures and everything were great
Last edited by OilGagner89: 07-31-2009 at 02:56 AM.
I think the point can be garnered just as well by looking at only the west. Even further to look just at top six F, top 4 D, and starting goalie.
Good approach......
But I do not understand how you have Vis as #4 on your defense comparisons - it skews the results. Plus, Grebs is going to kick a**...
The Oilers have the 2nd best point getting defense in the NHL. Plus, Gilbert & Grebeshkov are just hitting their prime.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnAlexander
The first thing that occurs to me is the Heatley deal. If it does indeed go through obviously that changes things a fair bit and it probably offsets things enough to for sure get the Oilers into the post season.
The Heatley deal will destroy everything. We lose 18 goals in Cogliano plus 17 from Penner. We lose 35 goals to get maybe ten more....
With Heatley, we are extremely cap maxed - we have no money to get the missing top six forward...
Nice post John Alexander! Great work. Overall I agree-without some good signings the Oilers will be in the same boat as the last few years-fighting for a playoff spot. That's why the slow activity in the free agent market is concerning me. We won't even have much cap space to do anything at the trade deadline. So far it seems we are going with the status quo except for Bulin!!
Calgary, Vancouver, Chicago, Detroit, and others have had all there players reach almost full potential or at least have had a lot of over achievers in the last 2 years. The Oilers have been huge underachievers and have many players on the verge of breaking out. Grebs, Gagner, Cogs, Nillson, PattyO, Smid to name a few.
Calgary- Boyd, ?
Vancouver- hodgson, Edler, ?
Calgary has Boyd, Sjostrom, Stralman, Dawes, and possibly Backlund who could break out. there's also a strong possibility that Bourque, Moss, and Glencross continue to improve and contribute more offensively
for the Oilers i see Gagner in a very similar situation to Boyd, the tools are there but they need to put on some muscle and strengthen up to take the next step in their careers. if i were to guess, i'd say that Cogliano probably has the best chance to have a break out year for Edmonton
I'm just looking forward to getting back to playing real OILER HOCKEY, which is a more aggressive, attacking style of play and taking more risks and letting the chips fall where they may. Something that's actually fun to watch once in a while would be nice. If we're the under dog ... so be it. We played that role in the mid-90s pretty well.
Pretty much every Oiler forward last season had an off year, it was in 30 years probably the least cohesive group the Oilers have ever iced IMO outside of the mid-90s when financially the team was gutted for spare parts because of Pocklington and the brief period when we tanked post-Smyth trade. Mac T was the wrong coach and it was evident by about November really.
If you want to compare rosters
Crosby + Malkin >> any one in the West. So everyone in the West outside of maybe Detroit might as well not even bother to show up.
Oh well. The West I think will be much weaker than the East next year. Pittsburgh, Philly, Washington (look for them to pick up Biron at the deadline if not sooner), and Boston are 4 of the 5 best teams in the NHL now. Detroit is the only Western team I would put in that group. Maybe Anaheim and Chicago, but I think they're both a notch below. San Jose until they show some heart ... forget it.
All this dick waving by Western conference groupies isn't going to mean much when the chips on the table come next spring IMO. I called the NW division fools gold last year too before the playoffs and it was borne out pretty clearly in the playoffs. How's that for a broad perspective.
On that note my own edge determinations will be given in the form of comic book heros...as in top superheros (villans for the douchey teams) like Superman and Batman representing a significant edge and lame heros like Jubilee, Robin, and Matter-Eater Lad representing the very slightest of edges.
I really would have liked to have seen you use Arm Fall Off Boy in there somewhere.
Stand up for your rights and get that doobie smoking smiley rolling!
