Some time ago, a few months I guess, another HFBoards Oilers poster and I had a discussion about the number of players from the OHL in the NHL. (Maybe it was the CHL?) We disagreed about the number of players drafted from the OHL (CHL?) that were currently in the NHL. I believe I pegged the figure at about 5%, and the other fellow at 15%. I went back to try to find the original thread, but failed - if somebody wants to fess up, feel free. Anyway, that was a long time ago so maybe this isn't interested any more. It took me a while because I was doing the code 5 and 10 minutes at a time on my Powerbook waiting for my wife outside of her classroom Monday evenings (how's that for limited!) but I finally got disgusted with myself tonight and finished it up. I now remember again how to talk to a PostgreSQL database using Perl. I've forgotten again how to properly format tables on these boards, so I've just wrapped them in code tags - mods, feel free to edit the post accordingly, I don't mind.
Enough with the foreplay, what are the numbers?
Methodology:
We'll set the bar at a minimum of 150 games played to be considered to have "made it". That gives us two seasons and a few cups of coffee. Obviously this eliminates anybody drafted 2003-2005, but I'll include their numbers for interest sake. Since I glommed the data from hockeydb's draft pages, this season's figures are *not* included.
Assumptions:
I have *not* corrected for players drafted twice; for instance, Jarret Stoll will be counted twice as a WHL draftee, and Matthew Lombardi twice as a QMJHL draftee. I can correct for this, but won't just yet. Percentages are rounded off so they won't quite add up.
First, raw numbers. In the ten year span of draft classes, we see 2936 players drafted in total. Since we're not (currently) interested in non-CHL players, the breakdown is as such:
See, we eliminated nobody (made it column), not really a surprise. So I calculated the "percent that made it" here.
Conclusion:
104 of 1322 CHL players drafted in the last 10 years can be considered to have "made it" if you set the bar at 150 games. Remove the players that couldn't possibly yet have made it, and the number is 104 of 978. So, successful CHL players make up approximately 4.8% of all players drafted to the NHL from 1995-2002 inclusive.
Source and methods:
As stated, I glommed the draft records from http://www.hockeydb.com. With some persuading, I could probably make the raw data I used available as a CSV text file, but I'd want to clear the re-distribution with the owner of hockeydb first. I sucked down the draft pages for the 10 years in which I was interested, and hacked off the headers and footers by hand. I created a little script to create the database on a PostgreSQL server so I wouldn't have to do it by hand every time I wanted to dump it for testing, and then another bigger script to read in the hockeydb data and spew it into the database. After that, I did the SQL by hand, so I can't programatically reproduce the results. I'll share the Perl code with anybody who cares to see it and doesn't mind ugly-*** coding.
So how many current NHL'ers were drafted out of the CHL? Who wins the argument?
There's 104 CHLers drafted 1995-2002 who played at least 150 games. Let's be generous and say 23 man rosters times 30 teams = 690, so 104 / 690 = 15%. I'd be willing to bet that at least some of those CHLers are no longer on the current NHL rosters though, and some current NHLers will obviously have been drafted before then.
Except I'm pretty sure the argument was OHLers, not just any CHLer. So look at the second chart, OHL row: 33 successful OHL players from 1995-2002 = 4.7%. So if my memory of the argument is correct, I win - and even my 5% guesstimate was too high. Except again, there will be some players on current rosters who were drafted before then. The draft charts don't say what team the player is on *now* - just who drafted them, from where, and their NHL stats.
I should say, btw, as a follow-on: I wasn't interested in winning an argument so much as seeing what the data was (and also re-learning a skill I lost when I, ironically enough, started a system administration job in a school of computer science...) It was as much about the journey as the destination on this one.
Very nice. It's good to see a fellow Perl programmer (albeit I rarely use databases; just HTML files that I dump off sites and sort through with a script).
A bit late for it, but there's a beautiful module available for stripping HTML from files- the aptly-named HTML::Strip.
I should say, btw, as a follow-on: I wasn't interested in winning an argument so much as seeing what the data was (and also re-learning a skill I lost when I, ironically enough, started a system administration job in a school of computer science...) It was as much about the journey as the destination on this one.
Since you've already done the work, I didn't wanna comment on the coding...
...but since you state that another objective is to re-learn your coding skill, you might like to take a look at the module HTML::TableExtract - very useful for getting data off html tables.
Very nice. It's good to see a fellow Perl programmer (albeit I rarely use databases; just HTML files that I dump off sites and sort through with a script).
A bit late for it, but there's a beautiful module available for stripping HTML from files- the aptly-named HTML::Strip.
Cool, thanks. Stripping the HTML was actually relatively easy; the stuff output by hockeydb is actually pretty clean, but I'll remember that for next time.
My last job 3 years ago or so now mostly involved writing some web applications that either put stuff in or pulled stuff out of psql databases, so I got pretty used to that way of doing things. And once you have everything in an RDBMS, it becomes easy to pull out other interesting bits of data.
F'rinstance, during the 1995-2005 timeframe, there were 277 NCAA draftees. Edmonton had 10, only two of whom had done anything whatsoever by the start of this season, and both have been the subject of more-than-usual controversy here: Shawn Horcoff and Mike Comrie. Both of them are from Michigan, which produced 21 of the 277. Boston College with 19 and Minnesota with 20 are hot on UMich's heels though. UMaine Black Bears are supposed to have a pretty good program, aren't they? They've got 11 on my list, tied with Cornell and Notre Dame. Not bad for a relatively small university in a tiny state, and Brett Clark was a Black Bear - looks like Cornell guys have 8 NHL GP between them, and Notre Dame is 0 for.
I shouldn't have gotten into the rest of it, I could be sucked into this all night and I should have gone to bed a couple of hours ago.
HFCHLers, yes, this is why there was no sim tonight.
(edits below)
... just noticed my post count, at least the last few leading up to the big 1k were relatively productive.
@ choppystride and MrBugg: maybe we need a "Perl people who are addicted to hockey stats" support group or something. Meet every Thursday night... "My name is kraigus and I'm addicted to regular expressions and DBD:g."
My last job 3 years ago or so now mostly involved writing some web applications that either put stuff in or pulled stuff out of psql databases, so I got pretty used to that way of doing things. And once you have everything in an RDBMS, it becomes easy to pull out other interesting bits of data.
I've not yet moved past the primitive OBDC stage, and it's too slow for my tastes. Though burning through 2000+ HTML files with an completely unoptimized script is no better
Quote:
@ choppystride and MrBugg: maybe we need a "Perl people who are addicted to hockey stats" support group or something. Meet every Thursday night... "My name is kraigus and I'm addicted to regular expressions and DBD:g."
print "content-type: text/html \n\n";
print "My name is Mr. Bugg and I'm addicted to LWP::Simple";
There's 104 CHLers drafted 1995-2002 who played at least 150 games. Let's be generous and say 23 man rosters times 30 teams = 690, so 104 / 690 = 15%. I'd be willing to bet that at least some of those CHLers are no longer on the current NHL rosters though, and some current NHLers will obviously have been drafted before then.
Except I'm pretty sure the argument was OHLers, not just any CHLer. So look at the second chart, OHL row: 33 successful OHL players from 1995-2002 = 4.7%. So if my memory of the argument is correct, I win - and even my 5% guesstimate was too high. Except again, there will be some players on current rosters who were drafted before then. The draft charts don't say what team the player is on *now* - just who drafted them, from where, and their NHL stats.
Wouldn't this be ignoring players that played in the CHL (or OHL) prior to 1995 as well?
Or were there different junior leagues back in the day? I'm not too familiar with the OHL.
Wouldn't this be ignoring players that played in the CHL (or OHL) prior to 1995 as well?
Or were there different junior leagues back in the day? I'm not too familiar with the OHL.
Yes, it would be. That's why I said this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by kraigus
104 of 1322 CHL players drafted in the last 10 years
I can and will go back farther, but I don't think that the numbers will be skewed significantly. I think it's pretty likely that players drafted before 1995 are going to be the ones who played 151 games over 8 seasons with 5 teams, or are the ones still playing. I can't control for who actually still is on a roster, and I can't count seasons vs teams and make a guess, based on the data I have right now.
I can and will go back farther, but I don't think that the numbers will be skewed significantly. I think it's pretty likely that players drafted before 1995 are going to be the ones who played 151 games over 8 seasons with 5 teams, or are the ones still playing. I can't control for who actually still is on a roster, and I can't count seasons vs teams and make a guess, based on the data I have right now.
Well, what exactly was the question posed? You make it sound like you are simply looking at the number of the CHL players playing in the NHL. If you are ignoring players playing that were drafted before 1995, then how can you accurately say how many CHL players are playing in the NHL?
It sounds like you are drawing a conclusion that only about 5% of the players in the NHL played in the CHL. But the evidence you seem to present is that about 5% of the players drafted since 1995 are in the NHL. This would lead me to believe that there's bound to still be many CHL players drafted prior to 1995 that indeed are still in the NHL. Therefore, it seems you've simply found a lower bound. Based on the evidence you seemed to have provided, the only real conclusion I can see is that at least 5% of the people in the NHL played in the CHL.
Some time ago, a few months I guess, another HFBoards Oilers poster and I had a discussion about the number of players from the OHL in the NHL. (Maybe it was the CHL?) We disagreed about the number of players drafted from the OHL (CHL?) that were currently in the NHL. I believe I pegged the figure at about 5%, and the other fellow at 15%.
You said 1.5 percent originally (someone had said 15 percent and you had thought the decimal place was one spot to the right). My guess was around 10 percent.
So, successful CHL players make up approximately 4.8% of all players drafted to the NHL from 1995-2002 inclusive.
By this I assume you are indicating that 4.8 percent is the chance of success of the average CHL draftee in the NHL. It could be read to mean that only 4.8 percent of the NHL is from the CHL (and obviously that's way too low )..
You said 1.5 percent originally (someone had said 15 percent and you had thought the decimal place was one spot to the right). My guess was around 10 percent.
That was right! Except I think I equivocated and conceded I might have been guessing low. Any chance you could pull that thread out? I couldn't find it - I did honestly try.
By this I assume you are indicating that 4.8 percent is the chance of success of the average CHL draftee in the NHL. It could be read to mean that only 4.8 percent of the NHL is from the CHL (and obviously that's way too low )..
Exactly right. The numbers for CHL players drafted by the NHL are in the first table: it's 45% over the last decade, successful or not.
I can't help but wonder if the bar being set at 150 games might be a little high, especially for 2002/2001 guys who might come into their own a little later?
I can't help but wonder if the bar being set at 150 games might be a little high, especially for 2002/2001 guys who might come into their own a little later?
I could do a series of queries (hahaha) with a sliding scale depending on draft year maybe? 150 seems reasonable to me for anybody who's at least 24 though - that's not quite two seasons out of a possible 4 pro years. Since most guys are drafted at what, 18, that means 2005 - 7 = 1998. Hm, you're right, maybe I should go back and grab 1990-1994 as well, just to get more data points.
Looking back at the thread (thanks), it looks to me like the conversation went...
Oi'll say said only 15% of "them", meaning I assume now and probably did at the time Schremp's competition - will be good enough to play in the NHL when the time comes. Oi'll say might chime in and tell us what he meant, but we took off with it. I thought the number might be 1.5%, you said higher - we thought 10% might be a reasonable figure for success rates of CHL players.
Were we arguing different things anyway? ISTR, and it was a while ago, thinking that I was saying 1.5% of draftees actually make the show. Did you think I was saying 1.5% of drafted OHLers?
Anyway, when I was crunching numbers, I was looking at the percentage of drafted players from (CHL leagues, CHL as a whole, other leagues) who "made it". It might be interesting, too, to look at the number of successful junior league players who get drafted. ie, you know that while a lot of Knights from the last few years are going to get drafted, there's going to be a fair few OHLers who won't ever even get an NHL sniff - their careers will end as junior players, or they'll go on to play semi-pro or something. How many CHL teams?
I could do a series of queries (hahaha) with a sliding scale depending on draft year maybe? 150 seems reasonable to me for anybody who's at least 24 though - that's not quite two seasons out of a possible 4 pro years. Since most guys are drafted at what, 18, that means 2005 - 7 = 1998. Hm, you're right, maybe I should go back and grab 1990-1994 as well, just to get more data points.
I was just thinking that some of those 2001/2002 guys would still be quite young and also missed out on an entire year of potential NHL hockey games due to the lockout.
I was just thinking that some of those 2001/2002 guys would still be quite young and also missed out on an entire year of potential NHL hockey games due to the lockout.
Good point too. I've scoffed draft data back to 1980 now, I'll have a peek. Information on Euros seems to be spotty going back that far, I found a bug in my script where it barfed if a player didn't even have a junior team mentioned, never mind a league... one guy! Montreal drafted him 125th overall in 1988, Patrik Carnback. According to our rule of thumb, he "made it" at 154gp, but... he scored 24-38-62 with 122PIM, mostly with the Ducks. I'm wondering if we're being a bit generous for the older guys with that number.
I was just thinking that some of those 2001/2002 guys would still be quite young and also missed out on an entire year of potential NHL hockey games due to the lockout.
I just realized this tonight: the DB I currently have doesn't have any numbers past 2004. So yes, you're right, but it affects everybody equally.
Anyway, I've glopped in the drafts going back to 1990 and I'm poking at it some more. I got postgres going on my laptop now: I was sitting in the car waiting for my wife tonight, so I pulled it out and started running some queries. Very dangerous.
Some time ago, a few months I guess, another HFBoards Oilers poster and I had a discussion about the number of players from the OHL in the NHL. (Maybe it was the CHL?) We disagreed about the number of players drafted from the OHL (CHL?) that were currently in the NHL.
So I thought you were exclusively talking about ALL OHL players. I didn't know about a previous discussion so I was just going from what you said.
I've forgotten again how to properly format tables on these boards, so I've just wrapped them in code tags - mods, feel free to edit the post accordingly, I don't mind.
g."
