Mayo wins - Again [cycling]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/other_sports/cycling/3794703.stm

Today was the fourth stage of the Dauphiné Libéré, and what a stage it was, a time trail climbing the famous Mont Ventoux!!

Mayo again triumphed over Lance Armstrong and he did in pretty convincing fashion, he was almost 2 minutes behind!
I've been meaning to post about Mayo for a while now, he's been incredible so far this year. Remember he was great laready last year (went close to Armstrong in the Dauphiné) but what he's showing this year is simply outstanding. The only worry that I have is that he might be too early in top form (he was already very good in early may), but on the other hand, with super talents like Mayo, who knows what his top form is?

Anyway, I think Mayo is a sure bet for this year's Tour top 3. In fact I'm starting to get the feeling that Lance is going to have a hard time winning #6. If you look at what's been happening, it seems that Lance himself is extremely good in form, but just a little bit less than last year.
But looking at how the other guys are progressing: Mayo's been terrific, Hamilton looks great as well, he could also be a danger for the podium. Ullrich is not there yet but since he's got so much natural talent he could still improve and maybe finally take his second Tour.

We'll see but the Tour sure looks like it will be an exciting one. I can't wait for the Grand Départ in Liège!!

Only time I follow cycling is during July, but all I can say is: Go Tyler Hamilton!

Hmm..strange. Once again no one mentioning Thor. Still think he`s weak BF? Great finish he had the other day or what? O`Grady, Cooke etc didn`t stand a chance.

Allez Thor!

If you look at what's been happening, it seems that Lance himself is extremely good in form, but just a little bit less than last year.

hmm...i think he was in bad condition last year compared to the years before, so if you say he's a bit worse than last year...he should have a hard time to be under the top 3.

who are the favorites this year? any new names or same procedure as last year?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/other_sports/cycling/3794703.stm

Today was the fourth stage of the Dauphiné Libéré, and what a stage it was, a time trail climbing the famous Mont Ventoux!!

Mayo again triumphed over Lance Armstrong and he did in pretty convincing fashion, he was almost 2 minutes behind!
I've been meaning to post about Mayo for a while now, he's been incredible so far this year. Remember he was great laready last year (went close to Armstrong in the Dauphiné) but what he's showing this year is simply outstanding. The only worry that I have is that he might be too early in top form (he was already very good in early may), but on the other hand, with super talents like Mayo, who knows what his top form is?

Anyway, I think Mayo is a sure bet for this year's Tour top 3. In fact I'm starting to get the feeling that Lance is going to have a hard time winning #6. If you look at what's been happening, it seems that Lance himself is extremely good in form, but just a little bit less than last year.
But looking at how the other guys are progressing: Mayo's been terrific, Hamilton looks great as well, he could also be a danger for the podium. Ullrich is not there yet but since he's got so much natural talent he could still improve and maybe finally take his second Tour.

We'll see but the Tour sure looks like it will be an exciting one. I can't wait for the Grand Départ in Liège!!

I think Roberto Heras is another guy who could challenge this year, now that he's no longer riding as Armstrong's number 2. I agree that it will be tough for Armstrong to win Tour #6, but I would also caution anyone who is thinking of writing him off. ONCE did that a few years ago (in the press at least) and Armstrong took it to them. But when you consider that Merckx, Hinault, Anquetil, and Indurain all failed to win a 6th Tour, it really starts to look like a daunting task.

hmm...i think he was in bad condition last year compared to the years before, so if you say he's a bit worse than last year...he should have a hard time to be under the top 3.

who are the favorites this year? any new names or same procedure as last year?

I'm thinking of the same guys as last year.

Lance, Ullrich, Mayo, Hamilton should be the main contenders. As opposed to other years I genuinely believe all of those guys can win it (yes, even Ullrich can win it - he has more natural abilities than any other cyclist, but his head lets him down too much. But I'd be very happy if he does surprise everyone and takes it!).
But of course Lance remains the big favorite, with this pretty heavy loss he will probably be even more motivated the next weeks and work even harder to get to 100% by the start of the Tour. I don't think Lance was in bad shape last season personally, he did have a few bad days though in the Tour. This season he seems to be close to that form, but I don't think he's there yet. But like I said with his strenght of character he will do everything humanly possible (and than some) to get to top form by the start, and I think he will succeed.


As for other top 10 candidates:
Menchov will probably edge closer to the top as well, possible top 6-7 candidate. And Simoni might be another question mark, but I don't think he'll challenge for the podium. Beloki should be in that list but he hasn't completely returned to top form after his fall last year and he said he'll make the Tour of Spain his main objective of the year.
Alexandre Vinokourov, third from last year has had a bit of an off year thus far by his standards, I don't see him repeating his performance.
And as always there's a bunch of Spaniards to take into account as well, Oscar Sevilla has finally returned from his horrible year last season (had injury troubles), Heras is there as well (though he'll give up too much in the time trails), Zubeldia, Mancebo, ...
Another one to keep an eye on could be Michael Rogers, last years winner of the DeutschlandTour. He has been given the all clear but his team to prepare only for the Tour this season, he's very talented and still very young, he may be a surprise top 15 finisher, even though I'm not sure if his climbing will have improved enough...


I think Roberto Heras is another guy who could challenge this year, now that he's no longer riding as Armstrong's number 2. I agree that it will be tough for Armstrong to win Tour #6, but I would also caution anyone who is thinking of writing him off. ONCE did that a few years ago (in the press at least) and Armstrong took it to them. But when you consider that Merckx, Hinault, Anquetil, and Indurain all failed to win a 6th Tour, it really starts to look like a daunting task.

It is a daunting task, even though there is no question that Merckx could have done it if he wanted, remember (OK, maybe you don't remember but I'll tell you anyway ;)) that he just didn't participate in the Tour of 1973 because he wanted to win both the Vuelta (Spain) and the Giro (Italy) - wich he did of course. Back than cycling was not so focused on the Tour and the other races were just as important.
Secondly, in 1975 while wearing the yellow jersey he was punched in the stomac by a french fan on the climb of the Puy de Dôme, he fell, lost some time and had problems with his digestion for the rest of the race, wich was subsequently won by Bernard Thevent.
Thirdly, he never was pain free after a big crash in I believe 73.

My point is that even though if Lance wins 7,Merckx is still the all time #1, and I don't see anyone capable of dethroning him for a while... Dominating the sport in the way he did is simply impossible nowadays.



But there's no doubt that Lance can win #6, and he has already said he'll add another year to his career as well, so maybe 7 is not out of the question! But let's see at first what he can do in this one, like I said, I expect stronger opposition than ever, and he already showed weaknesses last year.



Hmm..strange. Once again no one mentioning Thor. Still think he`s weak BF? Great finish he had the other day or what? O`Grady, Cooke etc didn`t stand a chance.

Allez Thor!

Well, there's no mention of Thor because I was talking about the candidates for the overall standings, not the sprints.

I saw how well he did last week beating some very fast guys in the sprint. But I'll stay with my prediction that he won't win a peloton sprint this year. Petacchi is simply flying, and after him Boonen, McEwen and Cipollini are probably still faster than Thor.


Secondly, I never said he's weak! I said he's not a true top notch sprinter that can win peloton sprints in the Tour, don't change my words. Besides he's much better overall than the likes of Petacchi and Cipollini

I think Roberto Heras is another guy who could challenge this year, now that he's no longer riding as Armstrong's number 2.
Hi Epsilon, nice to see you to post in this board! :)
But personally i think R.Heras has zero chances to win it.
Maybe he could challenge for the podium, but i still don't know how the stages of this year Tour are...

Maybe he could challenge for the podium, but i still don't know how the stages of this year Tour are...

http://www.letour.fr/2004/presentationus/parcours_flash2.html

Well, there's no mention of Thor because I was talking about the candidates for the overall standings, not the sprints.

I saw how well he did last week beating some very fast guys in the sprint. But I'll stay with my prediction that he won't win a peloton sprint this year. Petacchi is simply flying, and after him Boonen, McEwen and Cipollini are probably still faster than Thor.


Secondly, I never said he's weak! I said he's not a true top notch sprinter that can win peloton sprints in the Tour, don't change my words. Besides he's much better overall than the likes of Petacchi and Cipollini

OK...no need to get angry. We just have to agree to disagree here. Sure enough, Thor is not up there with Petacchi and Cippolini, but he ain`t far behind. I`ll stick with my prediction and say that Thor will take the green jersey this year...

OK...no need to get angry. We just have to agree to disagree here. Sure enough, Thor is not up there with Petacchi and Cippolini, but he ain`t far behind. I`ll stick with my prediction and say that Thor will take the green jersey this year...

Oh I wasn't angry, don't worry, and apologies if it came out that way, wasn't my intention

http://www.letour.fr/2004/presentationus/parcours_flash2.html

Thanks BF!

I'm thinking of the same guys as last year.

Lance, Ullrich, Mayo, Hamilton should be the main contenders. As opposed to other years I genuinely believe all of those guys can win it (yes, even Ullrich can win it - he has more natural abilities than any other cyclist, but his head lets him down too much. But I'd be very happy if he does surprise everyone and takes it!).


i haven't seen hamilton this year so far. is he in a good condition? i don't think he will ever win the tour, he's just not made for it. but i'd love to see him under the top5.
as for ullrich, i think he's very strong this year and seems to have a free mind for the first time in years. no doubt about his natural abilities, he's an impressive cyclist. but i wonder if he is mentally strong enough. his reading of the race is not the best.
i'd love to see mayo on top. but i don't care who wins as long as it is not armstrong again who doesn't deserve it. 5 wins is enough.


But of course Lance remains the big favorite, with this pretty heavy loss he will probably be even more motivated the next weeks and work even harder to get to 100% by the start of the Tour. I don't think Lance was in bad shape last season personally, he did have a few bad days though in the Tour. This season he seems to be close to that form, but I don't think he's there yet. But like I said with his strenght of character he will do everything humanly possible (and than some) to get to top form by the start, and I think he will succeed.


he wasn't exactly in a bad shape, he still won, but he looked not as dominant as usual. and he seemed to be nervous too at times. this wasn't the armstrong of the years before and that makes me wonder if he's losing his advantages.


As for other top 10 candidates:
Menchov will probably edge closer to the top as well, possible top 6-7 candidate. And Simoni might be another question mark, but I don't think he'll challenge for the podium. Beloki should be in that list but he hasn't completely returned to top form after his fall last year and he said he'll make the Tour of Spain his main objective of the year.


menchov could surprise. i think simoni won't be even a top 10 candidate. i'm pretty sure he'll leave the tour after 2 weeks or so.
beloki is simply not good enough to compete for a top-ranking, so he should really concentrate on the vuelta.


Alexandre Vinokourov, third from last year has had a bit of an off year thus far by his standards, I don't see him repeating his performance.


usually he won some one-day races, but maybe he is concentrating on the tour, so he could really surprise. i wouldn't count him off.


And as always there's a bunch of Spaniards to take into account as well, Oscar Sevilla has finally returned from his horrible year last season (had injury troubles), Heras is there as well (though he'll give up too much in the time trails), Zubeldia, Mancebo, ...


are there any basques that could surprise?


Another one to keep an eye on could be Michael Rogers, last years winner of the DeutschlandTour. He has been given the all clear but his team to prepare only for the Tour this season, he's very talented and still very young, he may be a surprise top 15 finisher, even though I'm not sure if his climbing will have improved enough...


hmm...he has the same problem as heras. while he's all for time trial, he will lose a bit at the mountains. heras is the other way round. both are lacking a major part. it's not much, but enough not to compete.

Belgian Fan:
How is Tyler Hamilton's team, Phonak? Would they be able to get him to the podium?

i haven't seen hamilton this year so far. is he in a good condition? i don't think he will ever win the tour, he's just not made for it. but i'd love to see him under the top5.
as for ullrich, i think he's very strong this year and seems to have a free mind for the first time in years. no doubt about his natural abilities, he's an impressive cyclist. but i wonder if he is mentally strong enough. his reading of the race is not the best.
i'd love to see mayo on top. but i don't care who wins as long as it is not armstrong again who doesn't deserve it. 5 wins is enough.

I wouldn't mind seeing Armstrong winning it again, even though I'll admit I'll be secretly rooting for Ullrich. But Mayo or Hamilton winning it is fine for me as well, there's not really anyone amongst the top guys that I can't stand.

As for Hamilton, he's been in very good shape since the Tour of Romandie at the end of April. In contrast to last year where he took both the Giro and the Tour on he has solely prepared for the Tour this season. And he's been impressive thus far. Bruyneel said yesterday that Lance and himself were even more impressed by Hamilton (who was second on the Time Trail) than Mayo.
I think he really has the goods to win it all, not saying he will, but he should be top 4 at least.

And Ullrich, well, he made a few tactical mistakes in the last one, I agree, attacking on the Tourmallet with the wind against was not a smart thing to do.
I'd really like him to put it together once again. With that talent he should have had 7 tours by now, in stead he has one....


he wasn't exactly in a bad shape, he still won, but he looked not as dominant as usual. and he seemed to be nervous too at times. this wasn't the armstrong of the years before and that makes me wonder if he's losing his advantages.

One thing he has not lost is his psychological advantage. He said last year that his preparation wasn't 110% like it usually is leading up to the Tour. But after last season's problems and yesterday's wake-up call, it's hard to believe he won't be in top form come July.



menchov could surprise. i think simoni won't be even a top 10 candidate. i'm pretty sure he'll leave the tour after 2 weeks or so.
beloki is simply not good enough to compete for a top-ranking, so he should really concentrate on the vuelta.

Yeah, Menchov's been pretty good in the Spanish tours in april and may, he's definately a guy to keep an eye on. As for Simoni, I know he's not a likely candidate, especially with the psychological blow he got in the Giro, but he could be a danger in the moutains.
I disagree on Beloki, if he's top fit he's a lock for the podium. He has what it takes to win the whole thing, great against the clock and showed last year before the fall that his climbing had improved as well. My personal opinion is that he could have won it last year if not for the crash. Due to his injury he isn't a favorite this time around but you can expect him in the top 3 for 2005.



usually he won some one-day races, but maybe he is concentrating on the tour, so he could really surprise. i wouldn't count him off.

I don't think so, he took the same route as last year (Paris-Nice, the Ardennes classics) but hasn't been at the same level in either of those, even though he started going very well in the latter stages of Paris nice (he won two great stages there!)
I can see him in the Top 10, but I don't think he'll reach the podium again.


are there any basques that could surprise?

Maybe Valverde could really turn some heads, even though he was with Kelme and I'm not sure if another team has picked him up now to put him in the Tour or not. He's somebody that could become a regular on the podium or at least the top 5 in a couple years time.


hmm...he has the same problem as heras. while he's all for time trial, he will lose a bit at the mountains. heras is the other way round. both are lacking a major part. it's not much, but enough not to compete.

Yeah, the thing is that Rogers might be able to take advantage of his obscurity and gain some time in a stage when the others will just let him go away in a little group. We'll see, top 15 should be do-able for someone of his class.
Another one to look out for of the Quickstep team is JM Mercado, it seems as if he's found his climbing legs back...

For Rabobank Leipheimer and Rasmussen could be top 10 as well.



Belgian Fan:
How is Tyler Hamilton's team, Phonak? Would they be able to get him to the podium?

Yep they should be equipped to do that. Phonak invested pretty heavily and with guys like Oscar Sevilla, José Guttierez, Alexandre Moos and Niki Aebershold he should have all the support he needs, both in the mountain stages and the flat ones.

As for other top 10 candidates:
Menchov will probably edge closer to the top as well, possible top 6-7 candidate.

Possible, but I was thinking the same the past three years and he dissapointed me everytime.


Beloki should be in that list but he hasn't completely returned to top form after his fall last year and he said he'll make the Tour of Spain his main objective of the year.

He think he said that to keep the pressure low, he simply doesn't know where he stands because of the injuries he has faced this season.


Alexandre Vinokourov, third from last year has had a bit of an off year thus far by his standards, I don't see him repeating his performance.

Actually it could mean he's better than ever because he wants to put all the eggs into one basket (The Tour de France). He could also fail miserably because of that, he wouldn't be the first.

I wouldn't mind seeing Armstrong winning it again, even though I'll admit I'll be secretly rooting for Ullrich. But Mayo or Hamilton winning it is fine for me as well, there's not really anyone amongst the top guys that I can't stand.


i'm a fan of armstrong's work ethics and his will to fight. but i can't stand him personally. he seems to be very egoistic, but i can judge this just on interviews and actions he took. maybe i'm wrong.
i don't like ullrich at all. but maybe it is because he ruined my fascination of cycling a bit. he's the reason why it went popular in germany and during the tour de france you can watch every so-called expert on TV with stupid interviews and whatever. cycling was very nice to watch in the early 90s, but then something went wrong.


As for Hamilton, he's been in very good shape since the Tour of Romandie at the end of April. In contrast to last year where he took both the Giro and the Tour on he has solely prepared for the Tour this season. And he's been impressive thus far. Bruyneel said yesterday that Lance and himself were even more impressed by Hamilton (who was second on the Time Trail) than Mayo.
I think he really has the goods to win it all, not saying he will, but he should be top 4 at least.


the last years i had the impression that he's not as strong as others on the mountains, so this could be the reason he won't win at all. but i really like him, so if he or mayo would win it, i'd be pleased.


And Ullrich, well, he made a few tactical mistakes in the last one, I agree, attacking on the Tourmallet with the wind against was not a smart thing to do.
I'd really like him to put it together once again. With that talent he should have had 7 tours by now, in stead he has one....


agreed. he had the potential to become one of the greatest, but the mind of a cyclist is as important as the body.


One thing he has not lost is his psychological advantage. He said last year that his preparation wasn't 110% like it usually is leading up to the Tour. But after last season's problems and yesterday's wake-up call, it's hard to believe he won't be in top form come July.


yes, you could be right. his poker-face is something i really enjoy. you never know how he feels inside. that's quite entertaining.



Yeah, Menchov's been pretty good in the Spanish tours in april and may, he's definately a guy to keep an eye on. As for Simoni, I know he's not a likely candidate, especially with the psychological blow he got in the Giro, but he could be a danger in the moutains.


menchov is the darkhorse of this tour, i think. no one knows what he has inside. simoni should be in trouble, as you said, in the mountains and could lose a bit on time trial.


I disagree on Beloki, if he's top fit he's a lock for the podium. He has what it takes to win the whole thing, great against the clock and showed last year before the fall that his climbing had improved as well. My personal opinion is that he could have won it last year if not for the crash. Due to his injury he isn't a favorite this time around but you can expect him in the top 3 for 2005.


true, but last year there was armstrong at that was all. this year, mayo, hamilton and ullrich are there to win it and maybe some others too. this year the peloton is much stronger, that's for sure.



I don't think so, he took the same route as last year (Paris-Nice, the Ardennes classics) but hasn't been at the same level in either of those, even though he started going very well in the latter stages of Paris nice (he won two great stages there!)
I can see him in the Top 10, but I don't think he'll reach the podium again.


taking the same route doesn't mean that he's trying to prepare the same way. maybe he took the early races easier. maybe he just took the same route, because he knew the stages.


Maybe Valverde could really turn some heads, even though he was with Kelme and I'm not sure if another team has picked him up now to put him in the Tour or not. He's somebody that could become a regular on the podium or at least the top 5 in a couple years time.


if he's that good talent, he should have found a team by now. otherwise it wouldn't make sense, don't you think?


Yeah, the thing is that Rogers might be able to take advantage of his obscurity and gain some time in a stage when the others will just let him go away in a little group. We'll see, top 15 should be do-able for someone of his class.


i don't think they will let him gain much time on the early stages, because of his strength on time trial.


Another one to look out for of the Quickstep team is JM Mercado, it seems as if he's found his climbing legs back...


another darkhorse it seems. no one mentioned him so far.


For Rabobank Leipheimer and Rasmussen could be top 10 as well.


yeah, both are good for the top 10 as every year. is boogerd still trying to reach a good result in france?

and where are your guys from belgium? :p: :lol

My point is that even though if Lance wins 7,Merckx is still the all time #1, and I don't see anyone capable of dethroning him for a while... Dominating the sport in the way he did is simply impossible nowadays.

No one can argue with that. Even ignoring non-TDF events (where Merckx's resume is far superior to Armstrong's and just about anyone else), Merckx rode in 7 Tours, winning 5 times, finishing 2nd and 6th the other times. What's more, he won 34 (!) stages, which is over twice as many as Armstrong and almost three times as many as Indurain. Personally, I can't see any modern cyclist ever having a Tour like Merckx's 1969 Tour, where he won the race (by 17 minutes), the points, and the KOM, along with 6 stages. Cycling has become far to specialized for anyone other than some super-talent to accomplish anything similar.

As for this year's Tour ;)

-I agree with what people have said about Heras and time trials, and I wasn't expecting him to contend for the yellow but more for a spot on the podium. I think if he wants he could be a KOM contender.

-Is there anyone who exemplifies "million dollar body, 10 cent head" better than Ullrich? He had the talent to be one of the all-time greats, but Armstrong's emergence as a more complete all-around athlete seemed to fracture his psyche.