Injuries - A comparison

OK. Alot has been said about other teams having more injuries than the Canucks. I decided to look at the team with the most man games lost and make a comparison to the Canucks. I went to the TSN site of the NYI and clicked player by player. search the injuries list and marked down each player. 1 by 1. I came to 385 man games lost. Another list had them at 402 but unless it was a traded player I dont see the additional 17 games to any of their current roster players.

The results are as follows.

Forwards - 259 games lost

Ruslan Fedotenko - W - 15 games
Mike Sillinger - C - 30 games
Andy Hilbert - C/W - 12 games
Franz Nielson - C - 12 games
Aaron Johnson - D/W - 37 games
Jon Sim - W - 80 games
Shawn Bates - C - 73 games


Defense - 111 games lost

Brian Berard - D - 6 games
Chris Campoli - D - 36 games
Bruno Gervais - D - 21 games
Andy Sutton - D - 24 games
Brandon Witt - D - 24 games


Goalie - 15 games lost

Rick Dipietro - G - 15 games

So what do I take from this list. Well first off 2 scrubs in Jon Sim and Shawn Bates take up 153 man games lost between them. That alone takes up almost 40% of all lost games. Would be equivalent to the Nucks losing Cowan and Rypien for the year. Hardly impact players.

So if you were to look at the Islanders top 6 forwards and top 4 defense you would be hard pressed to find 100 man games lost between them.

So ya. The NYI had more injuries than the Canucks. But if you break down which players went down then it becomes very clear that at least the NYI's, despite having more games lost, did not lose near the quality of player the Canucks did this past year.

I will break down the Canucks shortly and post the results.

If anyone would like to see another team done just request in this thread and ill do my best. Or be proactive and do a team yourself. Post the results and lets have a fair comprehensive analysis of the Canucks injuries this year.

You could say the exact same thing about the Canucks forwards. Cowan and Rypien account for almost 40% of the Canucks forward injuries.

My numbers might not be 100% accurate, but I think the Canucks lost 50% of their forward injuries from the 4th line alone. 58 games from Rypien, Cowan, Isbister, and Ritchie compared to 58 from Morrison, Raymond, Pyatt, Kesler, Cooke/Pettinger, Naslund, D. Sedin, H. Sedin, and Shannon.

You could say the exact same thing about the Canucks forwards. Cowan and Rypien account for almost 40% of the Canucks forward injuries.

My numbers might not be 100% accurate, but I think the Canucks lost 50% of their forward injuries from the 4th line alone. 58 games from Rypien, Cowan, Isbister, and Ritchie compared to 58 from Morrison, Raymond, Pyatt, Kesler, Cooke/Pettinger, Naslund, D. Sedin, H. Sedin, and Shannon.


Cowan lost 25 games. Rypien 16. The total of 41 games does not even touch the single total of any 1 of those 2 Islanders.

Plus that is forwards only. Canucks blueline injuries is what hurt them most.

Anyway working on the Canuck list now.

http://mirtle.blogspot.com/2008/03/official-man-games-lost-to-injury.html

Edmonton

I count 388 man games lost, though I've seen it listed as low as 340, so I'm not sure if I've counted someone who shouldn't have been, but anyway, here's the team sorted by position:



Forwards: 232 man games lost

Ethan Moreau - LW - 57 games
Raffi Torres - LW - 49 games
Geoff Sanderson - LW - 32 games
Jarret Stoll - C - 31 games
Shawn Horcoff - C - 29 games
Fernando Pisani - RW - 26 games
Ales Hemsky - LW - 7 games
Kyle Brodziak - C - 1 game


Defense: 148 man games lost

Sheldon Souray - D - 56 games
Matt Greene - D - 34 games
Mathieu Roy - D - 21 games
Joni Pitkanen - D - 19 games
Dick Tarnstrom - D - 12 games
Ladislav Smid - D - 6 games


Goaltenders 8 man games lost

Mathieu Garon - G - 5 games
Dwayne Roloson - G - 3 games


They pretty much lost important pieces from every part of their lineup for long stretches. Good thing their young players could step up.

Vancouver Canucks - 279 games lost

Forwards - 104 games

Brendan Morrison - 42 games
Mason Raymond - 8 games
Brad Isbister - 5 games
Byron Ritchie - 8 games
Rick Rypien - 16 games
Jeff Cowan - 25 games


Defense - 171 games

Sami Salo - 19 games
Mattias Ohlund - 30 games
Kevin Bieksa - 47 games
Willie Mitchell - 10 games
Lucas Krajicek - 41 games
Aaron Miller - 24 games


Goalie - 4 games

Roberto Luongo - 4 games

Now compare the 2 teams. but instead of looking at the # of games. Look at the player who was out and for how long. Does anyone here feel the Islanders lost more quality NHL players than the Canucks? I am hard pressed to find a single Islander injury that meant anything other than injuries to fringe players.

So again. It is not the # of injuries that count. What counts is who went down and when. No one in the NHL has been hit as hard as the Canucks. Only Colorado would be close but they lost man games at the forward position. A position filled by 12 as opposed to 6 like the D. Plus the fact they won the Forsberg sweepstakes. Is not everyday a team can add an elite forward without having to give anything up.

Ya. Edmonton is a unique situation. The youth that Edmonton replaced the injuries with actually outplayed the regulars.

Edmonton was stinking out the joint with the "regulars" in. They didnt start playing well till AFTER the injuries. In a strange way Injuries are a blessing in disguise for the Oil. The Oil future does indeed look bright.

But again the Oilers lost injuries to their strength. Losing Souray for example meant they lost some offense. But the Oilers weakness is not scoring goals. it is stopping them. Something Souray would not have helped at all.

http://mirtle.blogspot.com/2008/03/official-man-games-lost-to-injury.html


That list has to have been done before year end. Looks like it was done about 15games before the end of the regular season.

Here's the final list, guys:
http://mirtle.blogspot.com/2008/04/2007-08-man-games-lost-to-injury.html

Florida. Another team with alot of injuries. Not a complete list but the bulk of games lost were to such perrenial all stars as.

Noah Welch 76
Garth Murray 63
Branislav Mezei 46
Cory Murphy 30

That alone is 215 man games lost. So over half the man games lost in Florida were to players who probably wouldnt even be on most NHL rosters.

Here's the final list, guys:
http://mirtle.blogspot.com/2008/04/2007-08-man-games-lost-to-injury.html

That list looks a lil more accurate. Got the NYI bang on. I assume the difference between my Vancouver list and that one is probably Rypien. I am guessing most his games counted against Manitoba.

The blogger also added:

I'm going to try and do a more thorough analysis of these numbers in the off-season, something that weights the data a little to measure the severity of a team's losses.

For interest's sake, here's how the figures were calculated for the Islanders, who led the league in the category: Shawn Bates (79), Jon Sim (79), Aaron Johnson (37), Chris Campoli (35), Mike Sillinger (29), Andy Sutton (23), Brendan Witt (22), Bruno Gervais (20), Ruslan Fedotenko (15), Radek Martinek (13), Frans Nielsen (13), Others (37)

That's a lot of bodies, but it's probably fair to say other teams had more significant losses, if you know what I mean.

The bolded part is important. Basically the point this thread is hoping to make. The # of games does not matter. What matters is WHO was injured and when. No team in the NHL was hit harder from Injuries than Vancouver was. Argueably Colorado. But again it was injuries to their forwards (deepest part of a team). Plus they got to add Forsberg for free which certainly has to help ease the injury front.

That list looks a lil more accurate. Got the NYI bang on. I assume the difference between my Vancouver list and that one is probably Rypien. I am guessing most his games counted against Manitoba.This list is straight from the 30 NHL teams. It's as accurate as you can get (without recounting every team's totals, I suppose).

This list is straight from the 30 NHL teams. It's as accurate as you can get (without recounting every team's totals, I suppose).

Like I said the list looks good.

So far Vancouver, Islanders and bits of Florida has been done. It is no contest so far that the quality of player Vancouver lost for stretches is far more valuable than anything the other 2 have lost. Despite losing significantly less "man games". Both Florida and the Islanders lost bit players for long stretches. Players that wouldnt make NHL rosters on most teams in the league.

Looking at the amount of games lost is a very poor way to determine how said injuries effected their respective teams.

A clearer example. Which team would suffer more.

Washington losing AO for 70 games

or

NYI losing Jon Sim and Shawn Bates for 80 games each?

Using some people rational the NYI would be hurt more. They lost 160 games after all as opposed to only 70 for Washington. A perfect example of the # meaning nothing and the player meaning everything.

The NYI had more injuries than the Canucks. But if you break down which players went down then it becomes very clear that at least the NYI's, despite having more games lost, did not lose near the quality of player the Canucks did this past year.

There's no question Vancouver had a ton of injuries this season, but...

Those are some big, big losses on defence for the Islanders, who were a very strong defensive team for most of the year. Martinek, their top blueliner, missed 13 games, Witt's No. 2 on their depth chart, Gervais played 20 minutes a game and Campoli was playing well (and a lot) before he went down.

They lost everybody at some point. Martinek led the defence at 69 games played and everyone else was at 60 or less.

There's no question Vancouver had a ton of injuries this season, but...

Those are some big, big losses on defence for the Islanders, who were a very strong defensive team for most of the year. Martinek, their top blueliner, missed 13 games, Witt's No. 2 on their depth chart, Gervais played 20 minutes a game and Campoli was playing well (and a lot) before he went down.

They lost everybody at some point. Martinek led the defence at 69 games played and everyone else was at 60 or less.

The Islanders lost 111 games to their D. Vancouver lost 171 games. That is roughly 55% more. As good as the Isle D may have been they are still not in Vancouver's league nor where they hit nearly as hard on the back end.

I think that's fair. Both teams were hit pretty hard.

Carolina's another team that lost a ton of significant guys this season, most of them up front: Brind'Amour, Williams, Cullen, Whitney, Walker

(And I think I misspoke about the Isles defence; it was good only really early on, before the injury ward took over.)

wow, Canucks not even in the top 10...
that's a bit of a surprise

our forwards list is laughable... of those guys, only Mo should even be in the nhl

reflects well on Boston, Colorado, Philly & Pitts ...all managed to make the dance.

You prob have to hand it to Colorado the most ...all that time without Sakic & Smyth and they persevered. Imagine where the Canucks would've been withouth the Sedins...

Carolina's another team that lost a ton of significant guys this season, most of them up front: Brind'Amour, Williams, Cullen, Whitney, Walker

SE was a bit weaker of a division also (I *do* think it's weakness has been a bit exagerated - but still, there really was only two playoff calibre teams in that division this season). Almost every other division had at least three playoff calibre teams - important when you consider the number of divisional games. In another division, I not so sure the Canes would be a bit further off a playoff spot.

You prob have to hand it to Colorado the most ...all that time without Sakic & Smyth and they persevered. Imagine where the Canucks would've been withouth the Sedins...
One word....Forsberg. Even on one leg (which doesn't seem to be a problem THIS season), he's a solid top six forward. 9 games=14 points during the "home stretch". Think this was *ONE* main factor - putting them over the top. Avs got lucky that Floppa got "homesick" for his old team.

Burnaby Joe (and of course the trading deadline additions) were the other reason(s). Plus, it's easier to replace forwards than defensemen in case of injuries generally speaking.

Flyers had a bunch of injuries - but alot of the forward injuries didn't hurt them as hard since they had great depth here. Arguably they have THREE top six centermen at full strength. *Another* centerman, RJ Umberger, can double as a winger or 3rd line center.

Pittsburgh is fortunate in that they have perhaps two of the three best players in the NHL. Even if one is hurt, the other can pretty much carry the team for a period of time.

The problem with using just aggregate man games lost is that it doesn't factor in the quality of the players lost.

Mirtle did a calculation based upon a teams top-9 forwards and top-6 defensemen;

http://mirtle.blogspot.com/2008/03/estimating-man-games-lost-to-injury.html

That's from about a month before the season. Add in that the Canucks were without Morrison, Raymond, Ohlund, Miller and Krajicek down the stretch and they probably stay top-5. The Canucks didn't fare well based upon his adjusted per-point basis, but that's because most of their injuries were to defensemen.

That list looks a lil more accurate. Got the NYI bang on. I assume the difference between my Vancouver list and that one is probably Rypien. I am guessing most his games counted against Manitoba.

The blogger also added:

I'm going to try and do a more thorough analysis of these numbers in the off-season, something that weights the data a little to measure the severity of a team's losses.
For interest's sake, here's how the figures were calculated for the Islanders, who led the league in the category: Shawn Bates (79), Jon Sim (79), Aaron Johnson (37), Chris Campoli (35), Mike Sillinger (29), Andy Sutton (23), Brendan Witt (22), Bruno Gervais (20), Ruslan Fedotenko (15), Radek Martinek (13), Frans Nielsen (13), Others (37)

That's a lot of bodies, but it's probably fair to say other teams had more significant losses, if you know what I mean.

The bolded part is important. Basically the point this thread is hoping to make. The # of games does not matter. What matters is WHO was injured and when. No team in the NHL was hit harder from Injuries than Vancouver was. Argueably Colorado. But again it was injuries to their forwards (deepest part of a team). Plus they got to add Forsberg for free which certainly has to help ease the injury front.

I think a good way to weight the losses would be to multiply the games lost by the avg. ice time (ATOI column on TSN) for each skater.

That way an injury to Cowan or Ritchie is quantified as approx ~8 minute loss per injured game whereas Morrison would be ~15min lost for each injured game. The sum total would be the total time on ice lost in a year.

It kinda takes the subjectivity of saying "oh, he's a fringe player who contributes little" vs "he's an impact player who's injury meant alot" out of the equation.

And as some have suggested, defensive injuries probably have a more significant impact on the team, and the minutes would likely show this. For example, the Canucks top D men (in minutes) averaged 23+ minutes, whereas our top forwards were around 19minutes.

Objectively, on the Canucks, 5 games missed by a top forward would be about the equivalent impact to minutes played as 4 games lost by a top D...and it would take 11-12 games lost by a Ritchie or Cowan to have the same impact on total ice time lost.

Objectively, on the Canucks, 5 games missed by a top forward would be about the equivalent impact to minutes played as 4 games lost by a top D...and it would take 11-12 games lost by a Ritchie or Cowan to have the same impact on total ice time lost.
Another thing to consider is that a forward callup from the farm is likely more easier to "fit in" than a defenseman callup. A mistake by a forward, can always be "covered" by a defenseman. A defenseman making a mistake generally leads to a scoring opportunity.

Another thing to consider is that a forward callup from the farm is likely more easier to "fit in" than a defenseman callup. A mistake by a forward, can always be "covered" by a defenseman. A defenseman making a mistake generally leads to a scoring opportunity.

I hope Kevin Bieksa is reading this thread:sarcasm:

I'd be interested in seeing how much of an overlap there was with injuries. IE, did Team A lose Defenseman 1, 2 and 3 for an overlapping period of 30 games vs. Team B who lost Defenseman 1 for 10 games, Defenseman 2 for 15 games, getting injured when Defenseman 1 had missed 9 games, and Defenseman 3 was out for 10 games a month after Defenseman 1 and 2 came back.

Did that make sense? I doubt it. :sarcasm:

people underestimate how difficult it is when a defencemen gets injured compared to when a forward gets injured.

There are 12 forwards on a team but only 6 defencemen. Teams like Colorado and Carolina both had 3 scoring lines and even though they had 3 or 4 injuries to their forward group which is 25-33% of their forward group and they were able to still play well because they now had 5 or 6 forwards that could play in their top 6 instead of 8 or 9.

At the same time Vancouver for example missed 3 or 4 of their top 6 defencemen which meant 50-67% of their defence was injured.

It all depends on who get's injured. For example Calgary missed Rhett Warrener for a big chunk of their season but even if he was healthy he still may have been a healthy scratch.

This has been one of the worst injury plagued season in Canuck history. Not only that but it was the worst schedule in Canucks history as well. You can understand why this team ran out of gas at the end of the season.

The Av's started to get healthy and they got new bodies at the deadline. Guys like Foote, Salei, Forsberg, Smyth and Sakic all were pretty fresh for the stretch drive and they were able to contribute. Bieksa came back but just missed way to much time and was never able to find his game.

Injuries are a major part of the game but this year it hurt the Canucks a lot more then ever before.