Should Lou pull the trigger?

Hey guys, before people start jumping all over me, let me tell you, I don´t want to criticize this team´s current play, their position in the division or certain players.

I have been watching the New Jersey Devils from Belgium since the beginning of the 2003 season, and I watch almost every game, at least since last season. I am like Devilswede, just not that critic of our team :-) (no offense buddy)

I don´t know about you guys, but I really have the impression, that Lou should go very hard after a top player like, say Hossa. Even if it means, giving up some of our future. I know, we don´t have that many strong prospects, but still, how many serious runs can this team take until Brodeur finally is on a decline.

First of all, I would like to say, that I for one, don´t buy into the whole "Brodeur was tired, that´s why we lost to the Sens" theory. I honestly believe that this is ********. It is just very easy for us fans, and the media to just say something like this, and overlook the real reasons why the Sens beat us.

- The Sens completely outworked us for the whole series....few exceptions. They were the much better and stronger team physically, and when I think of that scene where Alfredsson runs over MAtvichuk and the Sens score in that sequence....that says it all. Lou saw that, too, and adressed those needs in the off-season. Recently, we have had a topic here, discussion how much better we´re off physically this season, and I agree with you. I´d feel much more comfortable with this current team, heading into the playoffs from a physical point of view.

- Brodeur was not really sharp. I believe that he was just not really consistent during the whole series....and already the year before vs Carolina. He let in some soft goals, but apart from that. I believe that he was great and stole a few games. But, no doubt, Brodeur´s rather inconsistent play contributed mightily to our loss. He has played 75 games almost every year of his career, yet he managed to carry the team to 3 Cups and 4 Finals appearances. Yes, he was younger back then, but, hey, he´s still in top shape. I don´t believe, giving him games off in December, November and January, or even February are going to benefit him in April or later....No. Still, when you don´t get any help from your offense, then you can´t really win a whole lot of games. (Just remember game 3, where we lost 2 zip, due to the questionable goal from the Sens and the empty netter, the point that turned the series into Sens favour for good. No offense existed!)

- This is my 3rd point. Our offense just simply sucked against the Senators. They had a very good period in game 1, whcih was not enough...they played well in game 2, and yeah, that is basically it. I agree, the Volchenkov Philipps tandem was AWESOME, but did we really put any shots on Emery? Did we really have a chance to win the series, even if Brodeur had played his best? ...I say, absolutely not.

- What a few people don´t really think about when talking about our failure last season was how good that OTtawa team played....Their first line destroyed us. (THe Madden line played crappy throughout the whole playoffs) and they went on to the finals as if it were a cheese cake eating contest vs babies. They were stopped there by the Ducks, but this team really owned the whole east. Don´t take anything away from them, just because we were not at our best. I know that if NJ is at their best, i.e. Brodeur in top shape, EGG Line and ZZ POP in topshape. we could have won, but still, it would have been really really tough.

This off-season we lost Gomez offensively and replaced him by Zubrus. SAy against Scott Gomez what you want, but he was a good player, not a monumental one, but a very good one nonetheless, and we are missing him in a certain way. But his loss did not hurt us in a way that would make me say "We can´t win the cup without him". He just had a certain upside to his game, his coast-to-coast rushes, and all that.
And we lost Rafalski, and as much as it hurts me to say it. We really miss him a lot. Especially on the PP. I know, he does not possess the greatest shot, but hell, at least he took a lot of shots. I was watching the highlights of last season, and I saw how many goals we scored from tip-ins, or caused through his wristers, although we may have given up some odd-man rushes that really hurt us. I don´t want to blame Lou for not keeping Raffy, though. His contract is insane, and I am glad that Lou did not commit to him with such an offer. But I am so happy for Raffy.

Defensively, Greene has really replaced Rafalski, and our other Defenders have done a great job of compensating his loss, as well as the loss of Lukowich, but offensively, we are much worse than last year. It does not help that Zajac is having a hard time finding the net, and that Elias is not at his best, although over the last couple of games, he looked absolutely great.

What I want to say with all this is the following:

How many good seasons does Marty have left in him? He´s still playing at the highest possible level in the NHL, thus giving us always a chance to win the Cup...but a goalie alone can only carry you so far. Once Marty is not the good old Marty, we will have serious trouble, at least if we don´t find a very very suitable successor to his throne, which will be hard to achieve. I think that if we really tried hard to get at least one high quality player without giving up too much of quality right now, we could be serious for being a contender.

We could really need an excellent defender that is a pp quarterback, a Dan Boyle kind of guy. MAybe we could try to get him as a rental, or maybe more after that. And we do need a player that can make a difference offensively. One that could play with Elias and that could have a good chemistry with him, coz we all know, when Elias has a player that he has some chemistry with, he´s at his best, and Elias needs to be at his best if this team is to succeed in the playoffs.

I don´t have a clue how Lou could do it, and who could be available, but maybe some of you guys have a few propositions to make. I just think this teams needs to make a hard push now, even if it means parting ways with the likes of zajac, greene, bergfors or next year´s 1st rounder...

I´d like to know what you think of this :-) and sorry if such a thread already existed

We miss the goals from the defensemen. Greene and co only scored if I remember correctly six goals. Rafalski's career record for goals in a season is 9, and now, after 39 games he has six tallies and 28 assists for 34 points. He is trailing only Lidström in points by defensemen in the whole league!

So what I want to say is, that maybe the system is "wrong" and of course, we don't have the talent at our blue line, we don't have any #1 defenseman but only decent top 4 defensemen.

From here in Hungary it's not so easy to watch all of the games, and when it's possible, only via internet and my memory isn't the best too, but when was the last time, we used umbrella in the pp and did operate with one-timers? I miss them a lot.

That may be the longest single post I have ever read. I agree with the most part, we aren't winning another cup with the squad we have now. I would like to see a big name defenseman come our way, and until then I don't see us with the cup.

I still can't believe how bad the offense is. It just seems that there is never anyone is a good position for the rebound, and its frustrating. I really don't know what else to say...

Good post, yet a very, very long one. Agree with most that you said. Especially with the Brodeur part. He's playing great once again, but how long is this going to last? He's 35, and he isn't exactly getting younger. We may only have 3 or 4 more years with Brodeur at the top of his game. And after that I can't see us having a shot at the cup unless we start bringing in guys who can score.

According to Spector, Dion Phaneuf rejected a 5 year/$30 million contract from Calgary. That is not a good sign for the Flames. They already have three players who signed huge extensions that will kick in next season and a bunch of UFA's to sign. There is no way in hell Langkow and Huselius are getting resigned if Dion makes over $6 mill. I say Lou package Zajac, a 1st rounder, and plenty of change for Dion. Burke gave up way more than that for Pronger and that worked out great for him. We're going to end up with another late 1st round draft pick this year, we might as well trade it for a guy who can finally fill the void left by the departure of Stevens and Niedermayer.

I've been saying for quite some time, this Devils squad is a playoff bound team, but not a serious Cup contending team. I agree, this team needs a few players to fill in our missing pieces. My big concern is Brodeur. I mentioned a few months ago that by the end of next season they should start grooming his replacement (who will that be, who knows?!?!). Marty will have 3 seasons left, that's plenty of time to groom his replacement and slowly fit him into the lineup.

Excellent post, I think our lack of offensively competent blueliners is concern 1a and a creative top 6 forward is concern 1b.

Zubrus does things Gomez didn't (physicality, grit) and has played his part fairly well, but we really need a player who can change the game with skill to jumpstart the team. It's a lack of skill which has caused this team to be so stagnant offensively.

The defense has held up well enough defensively (though they scare the hell out of me sometimes) and the 7 dmen thing has taken some pressure off players that don't measure up to the roles they've been given. But they generate very little offense. Rachunek's absence has hurt the team, but we've been terrible offensively with him so it's not the only problem. Otherwise, there is too much pressure on Martin to carry the blueline's offensive production. He needs to play a little better and he has looked a bit better the last few games. He isn't a great option as a #1 PP QB. He doesn't get nearly enough shots on net. He carries the puck up ice well, but his inablity to challenge a goaltender from the point hurts the first unit. Langs can't hit the broadside of a barn right now which make things even worse for the PP. Mottau can add a little spark but he just doesn't change games. Same goes for Oduya and Brookbank. Vish and White add negative offense.

Who do we go after, and what do we give up? I don't know. But it's painfully obvious that the team needs those two offensive pieces to turn the team from a likely playoff team to a team that at least has a shot at the cup. Unfortunately, they wouldn't be any better than last year, but they would be in a much better position to advance past the first couple rounds than they are right now. Long-term, to be a contender we need: a dynamic offensive player (preferably #1 center) and a 1st pairing dman who can play in all situations and guys like Zajac/Zubrus/Langs to play like they can and role players like the Pando/Madden/Clarkson, not to mention all the big guns to play their best. Just about every team needs those two pieces to be a contender, though, so it's not like it's easy to acquire those players.

Good to hear a Devils fan representin' in Belgium.

I'd like to see what we have in Vrana. That way, we can judge whether or not we need to address the center position at the deadline and/or in the offseason. Put him between Elias and Gio and see what he can do. The offensive defenseman thing we need to address in the offseason because it's really lacking right now, and there's no quick fix in the minors. Hopefully we'll pursue a guy like Campbell and maybe Corrente will make the team next year. I don't see us bringing back all of our defenseman next year.

Glad to have some feedback on this post, and sry for the length :yo:

Phaneuf would be an awesome player for this team, but at the end of the day, I highly doubt the Flames are going to let him walk away. Will he be RFA at season´s end? I think so, in that case, even if we tendered him an offer sheet....the Flames would likely match it anyway, and offering the maximum of salary to one player, this would be financial suicide. We have the luxury to have locked up almost every key player for the next season included. In case the cap goes up again, we could really spent some money on an excellent player. Gionta could be a player that attracts some interest. Zajac and Greene, too...I would hate to part ways with any of these, but if we could get a top player for them, that definitely is an upgrade....Go for it. Maybe Lou should stop trying to acquire Devils type players. Don´t get me wrong, I love defensively responsible players, but hey, why not trying to get a pure goal scorer that is certainly going to pot 35 + goals next to an Elias, although he might not be too strong defensively. Let Marty and co balance this out. But just always adding Marshalls, Lukowichs...is not going to cut it.

Like I said, maybe a very strong defender would be the best thing to do..I really like DAn Boyle. Get him at the deadline, if he signs long-term with us after that, fine, upgrade the pick we added, if he does not, or we don´t win the cup, than just don´t. At least such a player could upgrade our PP, and by that, increase our offensive production, in turn take off pressure from Brodeur and the D and burst the confidence level of our players.

If it does not work out, well then you can still say you tried, and I don´t think getting a rental at the playoffs is going to ruin the future of your team...not with the drafting and gm we have.

I think you have to think forward of this year. We have no major payraises coming up this offseason - Clarkson, Pelley, Mottau, Rachunek, Pandolfo, and Brookbank are our free agents. Only Pandolfo is looking at a considerable raise, and even then you're probably only looking at an increase of $2M to keep the whole crop. We have, according to NHLscap, $3,376,982 worth of cap room. 2/3 of that will go to keeping our current players.

Next season we'll have the entire salary cap increase, whatever it is (guessing an increase of $4-6M) to spend on a player or two to fill roster holes. We need a man on offense, someone to be a sparkplug and add a dynamic element, and a man on defense who can move the puck really well and be that shutdown guy.

Now, if Lou pulls the trigger now, he's not going to do it for just this season. He'll be looking ahead, so don't expect him to pick up some big-name upcoming UFA unless Paul Martin suddenly turns into Lidstrom and Zajac into Nieuwendyk circa 1999.

But I agree, we need some top-line talent.

Our problem right now is that the we are not getting balanced scoring from the first and second lines. It's either one or the other. Plus, we also need an offensive defensemense. However, the Devils have a problem, they don't have much in assets. You have to give to get, but I don't want to see us lose another first rounder for a rental and I still believe it would be a mistake to move Zajac. So, what can we get for Bergfors and Vrana, plus secondary picks?

Our problem right now is that the we are not getting balanced scoring from the first and second lines. It's either one or the other. Plus, we also need an offensive defensemense. However, the Devils have a problem, they don't have much in assets. You have to give to get, but I don't want to see us lose another first rounder for a rental and I still believe it would be a mistake to move Zajac. So, what can we get for Bergfors and Vrana, plus secondary picks?
Depends. I don't think Bergfors is worth anything at the moment.

I don't think Lou can pull a trigger on a non-existent gun.

For what it's worth, I agree that the Devils don't have all the pieces to be a Stanley Cup favorite. Forget a power play quarterback, the Devils need someone - either a defender or a forward - who can be reliable player on a breakout. With Rafalski and Gomez, the Devils had 2; now they don't and it's why we see the Devils dump the puck in more on possession this season.

Why the Devils are so poor in terms of production, I think, has to do with their shooting. I've done the numbers, and on average, opponents are more efficient and accurate with their attempts on net. Here's a chart.

http://i196.photobucket.com/albums/aa51/JohnLikesHockey/In%20Lou%20We%20Trust/ShotsChart1.jpg

If the Devils want to make improvements on offense, they don't necessarily need to make a trade to start. They can begin simply by making better decisions with the puck. Among other things, this means not firing shots from the point with an opposing player right in front of you, this means calming down in the slot and trying to put it on net instead of blasting it as hard as you can, and this means setting up shots instead of firing them on net. Calling up Petr Vrana or trading for a Dan Boyle-like player or some other roster move isn't going to change this. The current players must do better on their own.

You truly can't score if you don't shoot, but the shots actually have to be on net for that to happen. (DISCLOSURE: I made this point once before in a much longer with much more rambling analysis on my blog.)

I don't think Lou can pull a trigger on a non-existent gun.

For what it's worth, I agree that the Devils don't have all the pieces to be a Stanley Cup favorite. Forget a power play quarterback, the Devils need someone - either a defender or a forward - who can be reliable player on a breakout. With Rafalski and Gomez, the Devils had 2; now they don't and it's why we see the Devils dump the puck in more on possession this season.

Why the Devils are so poor in terms of production, I think, has to do with their shooting. I've done the numbers, and on average, opponents are more efficient and accurate with their attempts on net. Here's a chart.

http://i196.photobucket.com/albums/aa51/JohnLikesHockey/In%20Lou%20We%20Trust/ShotsChart1.jpg

If the Devils want to make improvements on offense, they don't necessarily need to make a trade to start. They can begin simply by making better decisions with the puck. Among other things, this means not firing shots from the point with an opposing player right in front of you, this means calming down in the slot and trying to put it on net instead of blasting it as hard as you can, and this means setting up shots instead of firing them on net. Calling up Petr Vrana or trading for a Dan Boyle-like player or some other roster move isn't going to change this. The current players must do better on their own.

You truly can't score if you don't shoot, but the shots actually have to be on net for that to happen. (DISCLOSURE: I made this point once before in a much longer with much more rambling analysis on my blog.)

Exactly what I have been saying. At games, everyone is screaming "SHOOT!" and I'm the one screaming after them "ON NET!" Its pathetic, when they shoot, they miss the net and there are players there for the rebound, and when they actually get it on goal, no one is there for the rebound.

Depends. I don't think Bergfors is worth anything at the moment.

That makes two of us. We just don't have much to offer.