Interesting Article on Cap Projections

From http://www.spectorshockey.net under 'The Soapbox' (sorry it's a frames driven site I don't know how to get a direct link)

He says that if revenues increase by just 1% this year, and with the increase in most teams' ticket prices it should happen, the players' share will go up to 55% from 54% and that would bump the cap up to 48M.

If this trend continues, Elias's salary could be an amazing discount in a couple of years, not to mention Brodeur, Langenbrunner, and White's long-term deals. With a bump in the cap there is no reason why we can't retain our team again after this year and give Gomez a long-term 5.5M deal.

Things are looking pretty bright.

If that's true, we should all go out and buy as much devils merch as possible.

Same website also has the Islanders finishing second in the Atlantic :amazed:

Same website also has the Islanders finishing second in the Atlantic :amazed:
It's a different writer. Spector, Lyle Richardson, writes 'The Soapbox' and he has other writers do other features. Spector usually has very good analysis of the NHL and was one of the first writers that I saw after the CBA was finalized that said the players were not the losers like everyone else was saying with the drop in UFA age. While my opinions don't always match those of Spector, I can respect the effort he always puts into his articles. I must admit though that the Atlantic predictions from that guy must have been done out of a hat.

In the "Season Preview" he has the Flyers finishing 2nd in the Atlantic.

Is there another season preview on the site?

In the "Season Preview" he has the Flyers finishing 2nd in the Atlantic.

Is there another season preview on the site?
The Atlantic Report has projects the following...

Philly
NYI
NJ
NYR
Pittsburgh

For a guy who writes a column called "Atlantic Report" he sure doesnt know much about the Atlantic.

Bill Daly spoke to Kevin Allen of USA Today last week about the cap

According to NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly, "I certainly think the cap will continue to increase over the course of the CBA as revenues continue to grow.

"But I don't believe you're likely to see another $5 million increase from one year to the next. The increase this year was largely a result of us having underestimated the revenues we would be able to generate coming off of a full-year shutdown of our business.

"This year was an aberration."

League officials don't want to speculate on what it will be next season, but the best guess is it would mostly grow by $1 million to $2 million

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/nhl/2006-10-03-ten-questions_x.htm

Gary Bettman on the 2007-08 cap from Tuesday 10/3

Question: What are your expectations for league revenues this year, in other words, where do you think the salary cap is headed?

Bettman: We will continue to grow. I expect the cap to continue to go up. Will it jump as dramatically a year from now as it did this year? The answer is no. I think that the burst that we were able to show, the resiliency that we were able to demonstrate in bringing the business back, is something that you cannot replicate every year. However I am extremely bullish in our future prospects. I believe in the strength of the game and the business of the game

http://www.nhl.com/nhl/app?articleid=280415&page=NewsPage&service=page

The cap will increase for next season but it won't be another $5 million bump

The Atlantic Report has projects the following...

Philly
NYI
NJ
NYR
Pittsburgh

For a guy who writes a column called "Atlantic Report" he sure doesnt know much about the Atlantic.

More absurd is the MSG "expert reporters" poll or something. A few of the geniuses picked Rick Dipietro as the best Tri-state/Buffalo areas goalie.:shakehead

More absurd is the MSG "expert reporters" poll or something. A few of the geniuses picked Rick Dipietro as the best Tri-state/Buffalo areas goalie.:shakehead

it makes me wonder how some people have jobs:dunno:

Bill Daly spoke to Kevin Allen of USA Today last week about the cap



http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/nhl/2006-10-03-ten-questions_x.htm

Gary Bettman on the 2007-08 cap from Tuesday 10/3



http://www.nhl.com/nhl/app?articleid=280415&page=NewsPage&service=page

The cap will increase for next season but it won't be another $5 million bump
Let's try to do some math...

Last year the NHL's revenue was 2.178B, 54% of which is 1.176B, the max players' share. Divide that amongst 30 teams and you get around 39M per team. The cap midpoint is set below this average because, as you can see by the spending this offseason, the average is well above the midpoint.

When the NHL reaches 2.2B, a modest increase, the players share increases to 55%. This would up it to over 40M per team. With a raise in ticket prices around the league though a 5% increase is not out of the question. And as Brooks stated a 5% increase would result in revenues of 2.287B which works out to around 42M per team, a 3M jump from last year.

Now it isn't quite the Brooks "48M salary cap" after i did the math, but Bettman and Daly are obviously trying to make the cap look less volatile by saying it will only grow by 1 or 2 million. They probably also want to keep the players' increase in the pie quiet because they still look like the winners in the CBA negotiations, but with the average salaries back where they were prelockout and a dramatic increase in a player's movement freedom it isn't as much of a slam dunk for the owners as it once seemed.

Let's try to do some math...

Last year the NHL's revenue was 2.178B, 54% of which is 1.176B, the max players' share. Divide that amongst 30 teams and you get around 39M per team. The cap midpoint is set below this average because, as you can see by the spending this offseason, the average is well above the midpoint.

When the NHL reaches 2.2B, a modest increase, the players share increases to 55%. This would up it to over 40M per team. With a raise in ticket prices around the league though a 5% increase is not out of the question. And as Brooks stated a 5% increase would result in revenues of 2.287B which works out to around 42M per team, a 3M jump from last year.

Now it isn't quite the Brooks "48M salary cap" after i did the math, but Bettman and Daly are obviously trying to make the cap look less volatile by saying it will only grow by 1 or 2 million. They probably also want to keep the players' increase in the pie quiet because they still look like the winners in the CBA negotiations, but with the average salaries back where they were prelockout and a dramatic increase in a player's movement freedom it isn't as much of a slam dunk for the owners as it once seemed.

A couple of points:

This season's cap very well could have been over $46M. The league and the NHLPA decided to forego the 5% inflation factor (over last years actuall HRR) when calculating the cap midpoint. They did this to try to reduce the amount the players would have to give back through escrow. If they hadn't made that adjustment, this years cap would have been $46.2M. There is no guarantee that the players would be willing to forego that 5% bump again.

The big Players Share bump from 54% to 55% is a one time thing. Any future increases in the Players Share percentage will be gradual, rather than a whole 1% step at one time.

<$2.2B: 54%
$2.2B - $2.4B: 55-56% (prorated) (*)
$2.4B - $2.7B: 56-57% (prorated) (*)
>$2.7B: 57%

(*) If HRR is $2.25B, Players Share is 55.25%; $2.3B, 55.5%; $2.35B 55.75%; $2.4B, 56%, etc.

A couple of points:

This season's cap very well could have been over $46M. The league and the NHLPA decided to forego the 5% inflation factor (over last years actuall HRR) when calculating the cap midpoint. They did this to try to reduce the amount the players would have to give back through escrow. If they hadn't made that adjustment, this years cap would have been $46.2M. There is no guarantee that the players would be willing to forego that 5% bump again.

The big Players Share bump from 54% to 55% is a one time thing. Any future increases in the Players Share percentage will be gradual, rather than a whole 1% step at one time.

<$2.2B: 54%
$2.2B - $2.4B: 55-56% (prorated) (*)
$2.4B - $2.7B: 56-57% (prorated) (*)
>$2.7B: 57%

(*) If HRR is $2.25B, Players Share is 55.25%; $2.3B, 55.5%; $2.35B 55.75%; $2.4B, 56%, etc.
Thank you for the more specific details regarding this.

I'm not expecting a major increase in the cap from year to year, but next year could once again be a sizeable jump. What I meant by our long-term salaries looking like discounts is that by 2010 the cap could very well be around 50M, making a players' max salary 10M. With a player of Elias's talent only making 6M towards the cap this could be a strong advantage just like Jagr's 4.somethingM gives the Rangers an advantage now.

Salaries for the best players will increase with the cap as can be seen just in the past two years. Last year's signings of guys like Chris Pronger at 6.25M and Scott Niedermayer at 6.8M are less than what they could have received this year judging by Chara's salary.

Even a guy like Brian Rafalski signed for 4.2M last year where he could have easily received a 5M+ deal judging by the Leafs signings. Martin Havlat received a deal that was much greater than the one Hart and Art Ross winner Martin St. Louis signed.

As long as you are sure that a player can compete at a high level for a number of years and that he fits into your system, trading years for a lower salary could eventually make room for a potential future dynasty.