Why drafting Ryan over Johnson was the right decision

Just perusing Tom Benjamin's blog and he brings up a great point here (http://www.canuckscorner.com/weblog/nhllog/archives/2005/07/dave_and_the_dr.html):

...finding the gem in the draft has become critical. Every year there are a few players - a very few - who are ready to step into the NHL at 18, 19 and 20 and make an immediate impact. Dany Heatley. Martin Havlat. Patrice Bergeron. Sidney Crosby. (Oops. Sidney Crosby?) Having one of these players on an entry level contract will be a huge advantage. The team is getting a player for $850,000 or less when his actual playing value is much higher. A team with one of these early bloomers has a cheap top line player. This gives them more money to spend on the rest of the roster. On the other hand, most draft picks and most young players on entry level contracts will become even more worthless than they already are. Only 30-40 regulars emerge from any draft and most of them are regular role players.

This isn't to suggest that Bobby Ryan is going to be the next Dany Heatley/Sidney Crosby and Jack Johnson is going to be a role player. But it is a safe assumption that Ryan is the type of player that can contribute to the NHL at an earlier age while Johnson, as a young NHL defenseman, has a much steeper learning curve. It will take Johnson more years to reach his potential. So if both players salaries max out at $850k and they reach unrestricted free agency at the same time, which one gives you more value up to that point?


Ryan could be a bust and Johnson could be the next coming of Scott Stevens, but you get the idea. The point is, what kinds of players should a team think about drafting in this new CBA? Ultimately, I think the Bobby Ryans will wind up providing more cap value than the Jack Johnsons, at least until unrestricted free agency when everyone has a shot at acquiring them.

Perhaps, but power forwards tend to develop only slightly faster than goalies and defensemen. If you really want, "maximum value," then you should be drafting nothing but speedy skill players, as those seem to be the types who most frequently contribute in the NHL at an early age.

Perhaps, but power forwards tend to develop only slightly faster than goalies and defensemen. If you really want, "maximum value," then you should be drafting nothing but speedy skill players, as those seem to be the types who most frequently contribute in the NHL at an early age.
I agree with that as well. Pouliot (or whatever is name is) is probably the best bet for max cap value. The speedy skill players are usually feast or famine, though. Either they score or they don't, and if they don't, they're useless. The failed power forwards still find a spot in the league. (see Chad Kilger)

looks more like an excuse to back up a decision that your team made, rather than reasoning why the decision was the right one to make.

I am still surprised that Burke passed on Johnson... but then he's done a lot of surprising things as GM so far... the only thing that Burke did, that follows his usual practices is dealing a 2nd round pick for Fedoruk... he has long undervalued draft picks, and seems to really have a distaste for 2nd rounders in particular.

But he's made some strange decisions... from giving up a big money contract to Niedermayer, to all the enforcers he's added... to passing over Johnson in the draft... not the usual money conscious, better safe-than-sorry Burke that I've been used to following.

well here's my take on the draft...

Bobby ryan will eventually fill out and finish growing and put together a wicked display of offense, defense, bone crushing hits and leadership. I can't wait to see him flourish for anaheim even if I am a leafs fan ;)

You guys definately have a keeper!!! :bow: good stuff.

anyone have myspace? add me... incubi

The Ducks picking Ryan was purely the scout's decision. They feel Ryan in the long run will be a better player than Johnson. The only knock on the kid is his skating but that won't be a problem when he gets a chance to workout with the training staff in Anaheim.

As for Johnson, I thought his stock was overappreciated due to his friendship and exposure with Crosby in the months leading up to the draft. Whether he'll be a better player than Ryan, we'll find out in about 5 years. He won't make an impact on the NHL for another 3-4 years so its a little to early to say. But if Johnson does pan out and become as good as say a Dion Phaneuf, the Ducks will surely be missing out.

In the end, both Ryan and Johnson will have successful careers with their respective clubs. Its all apples and oranges. But since Ryan is a Duck, I'll be rooting for him to win. :)

Some say that it will take 4 years for a power forward to be fully developed in the NHL. In this case, it takes Jack Johnson 4 years to complete college just to enter the NHL. By the time 4 years passed, Ryan will be playing a regular shift in the NHL while Johnson still needs some seasoning in the AHL.

It is easy to second guess. However, given the success that the Ducks scouting department has had over the past few years....I would feel very comfortable with the decision if I were a fulltime Duck fan.

looks more like an excuse to back up a decision that your team made, rather than reasoning why the decision was the right one to make.
The reasoning is there. Your ability to interpret it, I have no control over.

I'm not specifically referring to Ryan vs. Johnson, neither of whom I know a hell of a lot about. I'm referring to the types of players that they are. The point was that the new CBA makes it more advantageous to draft prospects that can contribute at an early age, in order to maximize the benefit of the rookie salary cap and their careers prior to unrestricted free agency. Is that understandable to you?

It is easy to second guess. However, given the success that the Ducks scouting department has had over the past few years....I would feel very comfortable with the decision if I were a full-time Duck fan.
Not knowing much about either player, I don't really have much of an opinion about it one way or another, but as for our scouting department's track record, that's still very much up in the air. Lupul is off to a nice start. It remains to be seen whether or not any of these other guys will be players.

Why waste the pick on Johnson when his intention is to go the college route? Besides, the kid is unproven and was passed over by the American junior squad. Ryan played in the the best Junior League in the world and was more visible for comparison against comparable players. Good pick by Burke in my opinion.

Perhaps, but power forwards tend to develop only slightly faster than goalies and defensemen. If you really want, "maximum value," then you should be drafting nothing but speedy skill players, as those seem to be the types who most frequently contribute in the NHL at an early age.
Brule may have been the only 'safe' fast guy up high, and even he has questions.

I don't think Ryan is your typical power forward though, theres alot more to his game than power. It's possible he could play in the NHL within two years, the team will have an influx of young forwards over the next three years with Getzlaf, Perry, Ryan, Hynes, Brent and maybe Chistov.

If you have your forwards set, then you can spend more money on defense and goaltending.

Unfortunately, with the new CBA a team like ours is going to get screwed over with the UFA rules.

Unfortunately, with the new CBA a team like ours is going to get screwed over with the UFA rules.

Huh? How do you figure the Ducks are any different than the other 29 teams?

Why waste the pick on Johnson when his intention is to go the college route? Besides, the kid is unproven and was passed over by the American junior squad. Ryan played in the the best Junior League in the world and was more visible for comparison against comparable players. Good pick by Burke in my opinion.
You can't blame Johnson for being left off the roster. The selection process was up to Sandalin, his staff and Hockey USA. They had a lot of good names on that roster.Even off the 2005 WJC roster, Johnson saw more international competition than Ryan....for the last two years running.

Waste because he's going to college? Develpoment is development. I think you've a) either biased against the NCAA or your b) sadly misinformed. Michigan is a first rate program and one of the best in all of America.

IMO...the OHL is a good league to develop in...but far from being the best in the world.

Hey guys. I was sitting with a couple of scouts the other night have a few ales, and they both told me that Ryan was second on their draft list. As for Johnson, both had Staal ranked ahead of him. They have some concerns about how tough Johnson will be, particularly in his own zone. Both were big fans of Staal, and had him ranked 3rd overall.

I was all set to agree until you quoted Tom Benjamin.

I was all set to agree until you quoted Tom Benjamin.
I had never visited his blog until yesterday, but I thought it was a good read. I don't agree with all of his opinions, but he's a hell of a lot smarter and more insightful than most of the people who actually get paid to write about hockey for a living. Or your average message board poster, for that matter.

I don't agree with all of his opinions, but he's a hell of a lot smarter and more insightful than most of the people who actually get paid to write about hockey for a living. Or your average message board poster, for that matter.

Huh? Moneyp think we no smart enuff?

Not you, mmbt. What year is that bottle, anyway?

His posts were among the smartest when he used to have the MST3000 avatar. There is a direct correlation.

Not you, mmbt. What year is that bottle, anyway?

Actually, you can see the year on the label, in the lower left corner. Ah, if only I had one myself.

But it will be mine. Oh yes. It will be mine!

Booze.

looks more like an excuse to back up a decision that your team made, rather than reasoning why the decision was the right one to make.

After reading some statements in this thread, I'm starting to think the same thing.

Some say that it will take 4 years for a power forward to be fully developed in the NHL. In this case, it takes Jack Johnson 4 years to complete college just to enter the NHL. By the time 4 years passed, Ryan will be playing a regular shift in the NHL while Johnson still needs some seasoning in the AHL.

There was alot of talk that Johnson was the closest to the NHL after Crosby out of those lottery picks. Actually, Rutherford was ready to sign Johnson but Jack decided to go to college still after he thought about it for a few days. I wouldn't be surprised if he's wearing a Canes sweater next season.

Actually, you can see the year on the label, in the lower left corner. Ah, if only I had one myself.

But it will be mine. Oh yes. It will be mine!
Sorry, my eyes are crappy. Is that a '65? That costs more than my car.

You can't blame Johnson for being left off the roster. The selection process was up to Sandalin, his staff and Hockey USA. They had a lot of good names on that roster.Even off the 2005 WJC roster, Johnson saw more international competition than Ryan....for the last two years running.

Waste because he's going to college? Develpoment is development. I think you've a) either biased against the NCAA or your b) sadly misinformed. Michigan is a first rate program and one of the best in all of America.

IMO...the OHL is a good league to develop in...but far from being the best in the world.

Not in the least bias about a guy getting an education paid for by playing hockey, thats a smart player. Using the second pick on somebody you have no access to for at least four years is not a smart team move.....IMO.

As for the OHL being far from the best development league, I was referring to the ChL league as a whole, although the O has had more players drafted and the highest percentage since the drafts inception.

Not in the least bias about a guy getting an education paid for by playing hockey, thats a smart player. Using the second pick on somebody you have no access to for at least four years is not a smart team move.....IMO.

Who said he has to stay for whole four years though?

Sorry, my eyes are crappy. Is that a '65? That costs more than my car.

Yeah, and that's assuming I could even find one these days.

Who said he has to stay for whole four years though?

precisely, and we have an example of that right in front of us: Shane Hynes decided to waive his final year at Cornell to sign a deal.

Jack Johnson reportedly listened to offers from Carolina to join their squad immediately.

Big difference between second overall pick and a third round 89th pick. Why commit to school if your plan is not to finish? would be a waste of time for Johnson who would get the max. bonus and salary for rookies. not the same scenario Shane would have been looking at. Probably couldn't get the money he wanted and went the school route until now.

Anyways Burke has stated his team is going to be a lot more physical and i don't mean fighting . I don't think Johnson was the second pick in the draft. If not Ryan, Pouliot would have been my pick......IMO.

I disagree. I don't think drafting Ryan over Johnson was a much better decision, or even a better decision. But, I don't think drafting Ryan is bad. Both moves have their pros and cons, and at the end of the day, Burke and the SS decided they liked Ryan better.

If we had drafted Benoit Pouliot, though, oh man, I'd say that would've sucked. There were two people I'd hoped for the night before the draft, and they went 2 and 3. No offense to Pouliot, but I don't like him at all.

Huh? How do you figure the Ducks are any different than the other 29 teams?
i'd say the ducks have more potential high end prospects than alot of teams(perry,getzlaf,lupul,smid,ryan) if you want to keep them together it'll likely be expensive.

Big difference between second overall pick and a third round 89th pick. Why commit to school if your plan is not to finish? would be a waste of time for Johnson who would get the max. bonus and salary for rookies. not the same scenario Shane would have been looking at. Probably couldn't get the money he wanted and went the school route until now.

Anyways Burke has stated his team is going to be a lot more physical and i don't mean fighting . I don't think Johnson was the second pick in the draft. If not Ryan, Pouliot would have been my pick......IMO.

For some players the college route is the better route even if they don't plan on finishing. They play less games in college which means more practice time. Although you still want the players to get to play in game situations and pressure situations, the extra practice can really be beneficial for some players. You can also learn a lot about a player's maturity level if they play college because they still have to do enough to stay academically eligible. Most college athletes don't take difficult classes but some of them still have problems with basic classes. Lastly, just because the player might not finish his degree at this time, that doesn't mean college is a waste even if he only stays one or two years. Some athletes do actually go back to school in the offseason or when they retire and finish their programs and get their degrees.

Big difference between second overall pick and a third round 89th pick. Why commit to school if your plan is not to finish? would be a waste of time for Johnson who would get the max. bonus and salary for rookies. not the same scenario Shane would have been looking at. Probably couldn't get the money he wanted and went the school route until now.

Anyways Burke has stated his team is going to be a lot more physical and i don't mean fighting . I don't think Johnson was the second pick in the draft. If not Ryan, Pouliot would have been my pick......IMO.

Just because he leaves college early doesn't mean he'll live the rest of his life without a degree. He can come back after his career ends and finish whatever he started. Maybe he just wants to get his general education out of the way.

With that said, I disagree with the premise of this thread. You don't always want to draft players who can make an impact sooner. You want a group of prospects in different stages of their development. Otherwise, if every prospect you have is ready at the same time... then you'll have a logjam in your roster, or have your prospects being misused.

Then your GM will feel compelled to trade a prospect for chump change. Not like that's happened to you guys at all this week...

You can't blame Johnson for being left off the roster. The selection process was up to Sandalin, his staff and Hockey USA. They had a lot of good names on that roster.Even off the 2005 WJC roster, Johnson saw more international competition than Ryan....for the last two years running.

Waste because he's going to college? Develpoment is development. I think you've a) either biased against the NCAA or your b) sadly misinformed. Michigan is a first rate program and one of the best in all of America.

IMO...the OHL is a good league to develop in...but far from being the best in the world.
The chl is......and the ohl is part of the chl.More nhl players come out of the chl then anywhere else.You're not suggesting the ncaa is the best developmental league in the world are you? Because it sure as heck isn't.

Johnson is more ready then most

the problem with that assesment is that you dont draft a player for how he will play in the next 2-3 yrs, you draft him for how he will play in 5 yrs. this isnt football or basketball, you draft on potential. with that being said either pick is a good pick, the ducks could have used a defensive deman, but ryan was probally the most talented player available. and you always take the best player available because prospects are a high demand and has good vaule when it comes to trades

The reasoning is there. Your ability to interpret it, I have no control over.

I'm not specifically referring to Ryan vs. Johnson, neither of whom I know a hell of a lot about. I'm referring to the types of players that they are. The point was that the new CBA makes it more advantageous to draft prospects that can contribute at an early age, in order to maximize the benefit of the rookie salary cap and their careers prior to unrestricted free agency. Is that understandable to you?

i disagree because you can have a player play in juniors or in the A until they are ready, because the UFA status for 7 yrs doesnt start until they play in the NHL right? so that means you draft an 18 yr old, have him play 1 more yr of juniors, 2 yrs of AHL making him 21, then he has 7 yrs and is now 28.

4 years for Ryan to make the NHL?

There's no way he doesan't play at least some games next year.

4 years for Ryan to make the NHL?

There's no way he doesan't play at least some games next year.

05-06 or 06-07?

He definetly is playing in the OHL in 05-06.

Instead of calling this fourum "WHY drafting Ryan over Johnson was the right decision" it should be called WAS drafting...