MLB predictions

AL

East

Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Blue Jays
Devil Rays

Central

Indians
Twins
White Sox
Tigers
Royals

West

Angels
Mariners(WC)
A's
Rangers

NL

East

Braves
Mets(wc)
Marlins
Nats
Phillies

Central

Cubs
Cards
Astros
Pirates
Reds
Brewers

West

Giants
D'backs
Dodgers
Rockies


Yankees vs Mariners(Yankees in 3)
Indians vs Angels(Indians in 4)

Braves vs Cubs(Cubs in 5)
Giants vs Mets(Giants in 4)

Yankees vs Indians(Yankees in 5)
Giants vs Cubs(Giants in 6)

Giants vs Yankees(Giants in 7)

D-Backs and Mariners second? Cubs 1st? How? The Giants have no pitching beyond Schmidt to get them past the 1st round, should they even make it to the playoffs, the Cubs did not replace *anything* they lost, how do they win the division? The Mariners and D-Backs were god awful last year, they improved but nowhere near enough to win their competitive divisions. They'll be striving for .500. Brewers last? Doubt it, they improved more than Cincy and Pitt did.

D-Backs and Mariners second? Cubs 1st? How? The Giants have no pitching beyond Schmidt to get them past the 1st round, should they even make it to the playoffs, the Cubs did not replace *anything* they lost, how do they win the division? The Mariners and D-Backs were god awful last year, they improved but nowhere near enough to win their competitive divisions. They'll be striving for .500. Brewers last? Doubt it, they improved more than Cincy and Pitt did.
I'll tell you why the cubs are first, they went most of last year without Wood, Prior, Borowski and Nomar. They will have full seasons from all of them, and they will be healthy. Losing Sosa is addition by subtraction imo. Also, you are wrong about the Giants. They have a good offence, and a full season from Lowry can only help them, as it was he, not Schmidt who was their top starter down the stretch. Mariners were better than their record showed last year, and they have added some serious firepower to the lineup, and the same goes for the D'backs, and combined with the serious decline of the dodgers, I think they will take second.

AL

East

Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Blue Jays
Devil Rays

Central

Indians
Twins
White Sox
Tigers
Royals


Your best and worst rankings. I would agree with your AL East predictions, but your Central prediction is horrendus. The Indians? I sense a strong bias. A good outfield and decent pitching won't win you a division, not even the Central.

White Sox
Twins
Tigers
Indians
Royals (will be the worst team in baseball)

The Twins and Sox could flip, as well as the Tigers and Indians, but that's about it.

AL

East

Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Blue Jays
Devil Rays

Central

Indians
Twins
White Sox
Tigers
Royals

West

Angels
Mariners(WC)
A's
Rangers

NL

East

Braves
Mets(wc)
Marlins
Nats
Phillies

Central

Cubs
Cards
Astros
Pirates
Reds
Brewers

West

Giants
D'backs
Dodgers
Rockies


Yankees vs Mariners(Yankees in 3)
Indians vs Angels(Indians in 4)

Braves vs Cubs(Cubs in 5)
Giants vs Mets(Giants in 4)

Yankees vs Indians(Yankees in 5)
Giants vs Cubs(Giants in 6)

Giants vs Yankees(Giants in 7)


What happened to the Padres?
I feel they can pose a threat to SAn Fran because i think they are waiting for a real impact player or 2 to hit the Trade Market and swoop in....they have a new park and will get a new name player to build around

Texas goes from 3 games away from winning the division to below an A's team that has gutted their starting staff? Come on now. And evn if we didnt already know, I think based on those predictions, anyone would have guessed you to be a Cleveland fan ;) .

AL

East

Yankees
Red Sox
Blue Jays
Orioles
Devil Rays

Central
Twins
White Sox
Indians
Tigers
Royals

West

Angels
A's
Mariners
Rangers

NL

East

Braves
Marlins
Mets
Nats
Phillies

Central

Cards
Cubs
Astros
Reds
Pirates
Brewers

West
Dodgers
Padres
Giants
D'backs
Rockies

I'll tell you why the cubs are first, they went most of last year without Wood, Prior, Borowski and Nomar. They will have full seasons from all of them, and they will be healthy.
Well for starters you can not say with any certainty that they will have Wood and Prior for full seasons. They also lost the offense of Alou and Sosa and have nobody to replace them. I forgot about Nomar, but he isn't enough to offset it alone. And St. Louis didn't fall off the face of the earth, they upgraded their pitching to offset their loss in offense.

Also, you are wrong about the Giants. They have a good offence, and a full season from Lowry can only help them, as it was he, not Schmidt who was their top starter down the stretch.
I didn't realize my opinion could be wrong. Thanks for clarifying. They still don't have the pitching (or lineup depth, although it is improved) to win in the playoffs. They didn't have it in 2003, and they haven't improved it enough for 2005.

Mariners were better than their record showed last year, and they have added some serious firepower to the lineup
And no pitching. Offense alone doesn't do it. And Sexson is a question mark for this year. They added two bats to the worst offense in the AL last year, and their mediocre aging pitching staff is a year older.

and the same goes for the D'backs
Uh, no. Glaus is a huge question mark, Green isn't anything special anymore. Clayton and Counsell are good glovemen but are such blackholes offensively they are a waste of roster space on a team that should be giving their young players a ton of at bats. This team won 51 games last year, they didn't improve by 30 games let alone the 40 it would take to reach second place.

and combined with the serious decline of the dodgers, I think they will take second.
Serious decline? Oh how I love to hear this tossed around. The starting pitching is deeper, and the lineup is better 1-8 from last year. Yeah, some decline.

West

Giants
D'backs
Dodgers
Rockies


Padres?

Texas goes from 3 games away from winning the division to below an A's team that has gutted their starting staff? Come on now. And evn if we didnt already know, I think based on those predictions, anyone would have guessed you to be a Cleveland fan ;) .
The Rangers got a fluke season out of Drese and haven't done anything to improve their team. They could finish anywhere depending on a lot of things.

, and the same goes for the D'backs, and combined with the serious decline of the dodgers, I think they will take second.
The Dbacks added a bunch of bats, but still don't have the pitching.

Serious decline for the Dodgers? They hands down have the best pitching the NL west and they have more bats than last year. Contracry to popular belief, Kent is better defesively than Cora. The only decline defesively is Valentin for Beltre and he is going to platoon with Antonio Perez

Texas goes from 3 games away from winning the division to below an A's team that has gutted their starting staff? Come on now. And evn if we didnt already know, I think based on those predictions, anyone would have guessed you to be a Cleveland fan ;) .
There are a lot of people who think Cleveland could take the central. Best team on paper in that division. They would have been there all year long last year with a better bullpen, and that has been improved.

Padres?
haha my bad, 4th between Dodgers and Rockies.

yanks
sox
jays
orioles
rays

AL East

Yankees
Red Sox(WC)
Orioles
Blue Jays
Devil Rays

AL Central

White Sox
Twins
Indians
Tigers
Royals

AL West

Angels
Rangers
A's
Mariners


NL East

Braves
Marlins(WC)
Mets
Phillies
Nationals

NL Central

Cardinals
Cubs
Reds
Astros
Pirates
Brewers

NL West
Dodgers
Padres
Giants
D'backs
Rockies

AL

East

Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Blue Jays
Devil Rays

Central
White Sox
Indians
Tigers
Twins
Royals

West

Angels
Mariners
A's
Rangers

NL

East

Marlins
Braves
Mets
Expos(Until they get a better name Expos they stay)
Phillies

Central

Cards
Cubs
Astros
Reds
Pirates
Brewers

West
Dodgers
Padres
Giants
D'backs
Rockies

The Rangers got a fluke season out of Drese and haven't done anything to improve their team. They could finish anywhere depending on a lot of things.

Could be a fluke season, or it could be him finally actually learning how to pitch, instead of throw. And sure they improved their team. First off, all the young players(Texiera, Mench, Nix mainly) all have another year under their belt(or just 1 in Nix's case), and no matter how you slice it, Hidalgo is an upgrade in RF over Brian freaking Jordan. I see them finishing 2nd to the Angels in the AL West.

I didn't realize my opinion could be wrong. Thanks for clarifying. They still don't have the pitching (or lineup depth, although it is improved) to win in the playoffs. They didn't have it in 2003, and they haven't improved it enough for 2005.2003 giants pitching: 100-61 3.73 era
2002 giants pitching: 95-66 3.54 era

good one

AL East

Yankees
Red Sox (WC)
Orioles
Devil Rays
Blue Jays

AL Central

White Sox
Twins
Indians
Tigers
Royals

AL West

Angels
Rangers
Mariners
A's

NL East

Marlins(WC)
Mets
Braves
Phillies
Nationals

NL Central

Cardinals
Cubs
Astros
Brewers
Reds
Pirates


NL West
Giants
Dodgers
Padres
D'backs
Rockies

People are selling the Rangers short...

Could be a fluke season, or it could be him finally actually learning how to pitch, instead of throw.
It could be, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

And sure they improved their team. First off, all the young players(Texiera, Mench, Nix mainly) all have another year under their belt(or just 1 in Nix's case)
Oh man. That is not improving your team. That happens on all teams with young players. Improving your team is upgrading your roster by bringing in new players.

and no matter how you slice it, Hidalgo is an upgrade in RF over Brian freaking Jordan. I see them finishing 2nd to the Angels in the AL West.
Big deal. Scoring runs isn't a problem for the Rangers, and they didn't do anything to improve their staff. An upgrade at RF isn't enough.

2003 giants pitching: 100-61 3.73 era
2002 giants pitching: 95-66 3.54 era

good one
What does 2002 have to do with anything? In 2003 they went to the WS, in 2004 they missed the playoffs, and in 2005 they didn't upgrade their staff. The addition of Benitez helps the bullpen, but their staff still leaves a lot to be desired.

It could be, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
So we'll just have to wait on see on Drese

Oh man. That is not improving your team. That happens on all teams with young players. Improving your team is upgrading your roster by bringing in new players.
When thats at least 1/3 of your starting lineup only getting better from last year, I would say its an improvement.


Big deal. Scoring runs isn't a problem for the Rangers, and they didn't do anything to improve their staff. An upgrade at RF isn't enough.

Except that down the stretch last season, it wasnt the pitching that let the team down.....it was the offense.

When thats at least 1/3 of your starting lineup only getting better from last year, I would say its an improvement.
Argh. What part of this aren't you understanding? Players already on your team getting better is not upgrading your roster. In Rob Neyer's latest article, on the top ten teams that didn't do anything to help themselves, he lists the Rangers.


Except that down the stretch last season, it wasnt the pitching that let the team down.....it was the offense.
Down the stretch is just one part of the season. Games in April count just as much as games in September.

AL East
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Blue Jays
Devil Rays

AL Central
Twins
Indians
Tigers
White Sox
Royals

AL West
Angels
A's
Rangers
Mariners

NL East
Braves
Marlins
Phillies
Mets
Nationals

NL Central
Cardinals
Cubs
Astros
Brewers
Reds
Pirates


NL West
Giants
Dodgers
Padres
D'backs
Rockies

The Twins are top of the heap of the AL Central until they tumble. The ChiSox got the low end from me because it seems like every spring they are chosen to be at the top of the division, yet every year they fall short, sometimes way short. This year, they fall way short.

The NL East and Central will keep at least one good team from each division from making the post season. If they could just do away with the West, it would be no big loss. Florida and Atlanta will be the cream of the crop, the Cards close behind and I think the Phillies will finally have the kind of season that's been sorta expected of them for awhile now, but will fall short with two powerhouses in their division. I think the Cubs will have a good year, again, and will keep it interesting for the wild car.

The NL West, Bonds and the Giants will simply smash their way to a division title. If they had any kind of pitching, they'd be scary, but they don't so they're not.

What does 2002 have to do with anything? In 2003 they went to the WS, in 2004 they missed the playoffs, and in 2005 they didn't upgrade their staff. The addition of Benitez helps the bullpen, but their staff still leaves a lot to be desired.um

in 2002 they went to the world series

they lost to the marlins in the first round of the 2003 playoffs

1. I assume Pac Bell plays as a pitchers park.
2. Despite Brian Sabean's failings, the Giants DO produce a lot of runs.how can a gm fail whilst putting a good team on the field

forget it

dont replay

i dont want to go through all of this with you again

um

in 2002 they went to the world series

they lost to the marlins in the first round of the 2003 playoffs
D-OH! Brainfart. Still, my point stands. They don't have the pitching to get them past the first round. They have Schmidt and Lowry (who hasn't even pitched 100 innings) and then it's below average starters. The bullpen is a mess past Benitez, who is coming off his best year at the age of 31. He'll be good, but not as good as he was last year. Regardless, he's a big addition for the Giants, who led the majors by far in LOOGY/ROOGY use. They may very will win the division this year, but they aren't going far if they face a healthy team in the playoffs.

AL
-----
East-
Yankees
Red Sox(WC)
Orioles
Devil Rays
Blue Jays

Central-
Twins
Indians
White Sox
Tigers
Royals

West-
Rangers
Angels
Athletics
Mariners

NL
--------
East-
Marlins
Phillies
Mets
Braves
Nationals

Central-
Cardinals
Cubs (WC)
Astros
Brewers
Reds
Pirates

West-
Dodgers
Giants
Padres
Diamondbacks
Rockies

AL Champ - Yankees
NL Champ - Cardinals
World Series - Yankees :cry:

AL MVP - David Ortiz
NL MVP - Albert Pujols (He finally ousts Bonds)

AL Cy Young - Randy Johnson
NL Cy Young - Mark Mulder

--------------------------------------

AL East - Yankees are still the team to beat, Randy Johnson only makes them alot better. Red Sox will win a bunch of games, but not enough to catch the Yankees.
Rest of the division don't matter.

AL Central - Twins win a close one over the Indians who have done an excellent job of rebuilding. I think anyone but the Royals could win this division though, can't count out the Tigers or the Sox.

AL West - Rangers mash thier way to the Division title, Angels finish a close second. The A's slip back to 500 record without the big three, but will rebound with the young talent they got back. Mariners are better then last year, but not enough to compete.

NL East - Marlins should run the division with Delgado ,thier lineup is stacked now. Phillies choke again. Unless Bobby Cox works a miracle the Braves don't win anything. Mets should compete and have a chance if thier pitchers stay healthy.

NL Central - Cardinals are still the gem of the division, losing Renteria and Womack won't hurt the offense much. Plus we get a full season ( hopefully healthy ) from Walker. Cubs should be in the wild card hunt, provided thier pitching holds up. Astros lost too much, will slip to third place. Brewers build on last year and give Astros a run for 3rd place. Griffey will tear his hamstring tying his shoe and miss the entire season.

NL West - Three team race - Giants, Dodgers, Padres. Dodgers come out on top in the end.

D'Backs ahead of the Padres? :lol:

My much anticipated predictions will be posted later.

only doing the AL, don't keep up on the NL that much

East
Yankees
Red Sox (WC)
O's
Blue Jays
Devil Rays
can switch the O's, Blue Jays and Devil Rays anyway you want, i think they will stay close to each other

Central
Twins
White Sox
Tigers
Indians
Royals
Cleveland Indians i can see falling a bit, still a young team, no real closer (Wickman is older and injury prone) Millwood could help but he is still a big question mark

West
Angels
Rangers
Athletics
Mariners
the Rangers did nothing to help themselves with their pitching staff also still a young team (1 year older thats great but it doesn't help enough especially with when all the teams are 1 year older), Rangers will probably end up above the A's but not enough to catch the Angels or Red Sox (for the WC)

Argh. What part of this aren't you understanding? Players already on your team getting better is not upgrading your roster. In Rob Neyer's latest article, on the top ten teams that didn't do anything to help themselves, he lists the Rangers.

Ah yes...because Rob Neyer's word is scripture :dunno: .


Down the stretch is just one part of the season. Games in April count just as much as games in September.

Of course they do. My point is that when it came down to crunch time, the pitching DID NOT let the team down. What part of that dont you get?

Ah yes...because Rob Neyer's word is scripture :dunno: .
No, but it's a professional's take. No one else agrees with you. They added Hidalgo and nothing else of note. Meanwhile every other team in the division made a number of moves.


Of course they do. My point is that when it came down to crunch time, the pitching DID NOT let the team down. What part of that dont you get?
You're talking about a one or two month span. Which counts just the same as any other one or two month span. That's my point. The offense was 4th in the AL in runs scored. Hitting ain't the problem. The Rangers pitching staff has two starters with career ERA+s of over 100. One of them is 40, the other is Chan Ho Park. The bullpen isn't getting any younger and has three guys coming off at or near career years, two of them being 30 something. Ryan Drese had a career year and his strikeout rate is poor (4.25 per 9 IP), and players with strikeout rate below 4.5 do not sustain careers of any note. Unless he gets the strikeouts up significantly, he is not going to have a good year in 2005. You are giving the Rangers too much credit. They had a very nice season last year, but they didn't improve relative to other teams, they're going to need career seasons out of a couple of guys to make a serious run at the division title. Last year's pitching staff was piece meal, having only 2 starters going more than 150 (hell, 105) IP, and a rotating cast of #4 and #5 starters and bullpen arms. Give a ton of credit to Showalter, who had a huge hand in the D-Backs WS team and the Yankee late 90s dynasty and for my money is one of the better managers in the game. But the fact remains while just about every team that won their fare share of games in the AL last year made moves, the Rangers stood pat. If that makes you feel good about your team's chances, by all means go ahead. I certainly wouldn't.

No, but it's a professional's take. No one else agrees with you. They added Hidalgo and nothing else of note. Meanwhile every other team in the division made a number of moves.

Sure...Oakland gutted their pitching staff, and Seattle added a fluke in Beltre(contract year anyone?) and a guy in Sexson who hasnt been healthy in a while.

You're talking about a one or two month span. Which counts just the same as any other one or two month span. That's my point. The offense was 4th in the AL in runs scored. Hitting ain't the problem. The Rangers pitching staff has two starters with career ERA+s of over 100. One of them is 40, the other is Chan Ho Park. The bullpen isn't getting any younger and has three guys coming off at or near career years, two of them being 30 something. Ryan Drese had a career year and his strikeout rate is poor (4.25 per 9 IP), and players with strikeout rate below 4.5 do not sustain careers of any note. Unless he gets the strikeouts up significantly, he is not going to have a good year in 2005. You are giving the Rangers too much credit. They had a very nice season last year, but they didn't improve relative to other teams, they're going to need career seasons out of a couple of guys to make a serious run at the division title. Last year's pitching staff was piece meal, having only 2 starters going more than 150 (hell, 105) IP, and a rotating cast of #4 and #5 starters and bullpen arms. Give a ton of credit to Showalter, who had a huge hand in the D-Backs WS team and the Yankee late 90s dynasty and for my money is one of the better managers in the game. But the fact remains while just about every team that won their fare share of games in the AL last year made moves, the Rangers stood pat. If that makes you feel good about your team's chances, by all means go ahead. I certainly wouldn't.

Sure the bullpen(one of the best in the league last year) isnt getting any younger...but neither is anyone else's bullpen. Please dont bring Chan Ho into this...he'll pitch a few games and then (thankfully) get hurt. Relative to their division, who else improved more than they did? Like I said previously, Oakland took a step back, and if you think Drese was a fluke, then exactly what would you consider Beltre in Seattle?

Sure...Oakland gutted their pitching staff, and Seattle added a fluke in Beltre(contract year anyone?) and a guy in Sexson who hasnt been healthy in a while.
Even if Beltre regresses to his norm and Sexson is at 80%, they're upgrades. And that's more than the Rangers did.

Sure the bullpen(one of the best in the league last year) isnt getting any younger...but neither is anyone else's bullpen.
Off the top of my head, Oakland's is, Milwaukee's is, Pittsburgh's might be too IIRC, Atlanta a little bit, Boston too... Atlanta and Boston are by 27 year olds replacing 34 year olds, but it's still getting younger.

Please dont bring Chan Ho into this...he'll pitch a few games and then (thankfully) get hurt. Relative to their division, who else improved more than they did?
Why not? He's still on the team and will pitch. You can't just write someone off because you think he will get hurt. Improved more than who did? The Rangers? Everyone did, that's my point. And you're forgetting about the Angels.

Like I said previously, Oakland took a step back, and if you think Drese was a fluke, then exactly what would you consider Beltre in Seattle?
Beltre was a fluke season too, but as I just said, even if he regresses to his norm, he's still better than what they had (Spiezo: 256/327/418 career, Beltre: 274/332/463 and GG defense). The Mariners made improvement. They'll still be last, but they won't be as bad. I never said they would beat out the Rangers if that is what you are implying. But since they'll be better, they'll take away a couple of wins from the Rangers (and everyone else of course, assuming that Oakland and Anaheim had real good records vs Seattle last year).

FYI: I don't think Santana will drop off that much. Radke is underrated. Silva is older, and should be more experienced. I wouldn't be surprised to see him put together a better year. Nathan is SO underrated as a closer it's not even funny. Mauer should be back to add some power...

Losing Koskie and Guzman doesn't really hurt...

AL

East
Yankees
Red Sox
Orioles
Blue Jays
Devil Rays

Central
Twins
White Sox
Indians
Tigers
Royals

West
Angels
Athletics
Rangers
Mariners

Wild-card
Red Sox
White Sox
Athletics
Rangers
Orioles
Indians
Mariners
Blue Jays
Tigers
Devil Rays
Royals



NL

East
Marlins
Braves
Mets
Nationals
Phillies

Central
Cardinals
Cubs
Astros
Pirates
Brewers
Reds

West
Dodgers
Giants
Padres
Diamondbacks
Rockies

Wildcard
Braves
Giants
Mets
Cubs
Astros
Padres
Diamondbacks
Pirates
Brewers
Nationals
Phillies
Reds
Rockies

Outside of Bonds and Schmidt, the team BLOWS and is older than Jesus, and you know it.
you really seem to hate the Giants. That team does not blow, and will be the favorites to win the west.

you really seem to hate the Giants. That team does not blow, and will be the favorites to win the west.im not sure that theyre the favorites

but he does have some weird hang up with the giants/sabean :dunno:

im not sure that theyre the favorites

but he does have some weird hang up with the giants/sabean :dunno:
he keeps saying they are old and suck and they keep winning and going to the playoffs. Maybe Sabean ran over his dog or something. Nah I know the reason, it is because Sabean and ICW are idealogical opposites. ICW can't stand old players, but he forgets, the Giants may have old players, but they are some of the best damn old players there are lol.

AL

Central

Cubs
Cards
Astros
Pirates
Reds
Brewers


Cubs Lose:
Sosa
Clement
Alou
A year on Maddux's arm

Cubs gain:
Michael Barrett


Cards Lose:
Rentaria
Haren

Cards Gain:
Mulder
Eckstein
Grudzelanik
M.Myers

Somehow the Cubs will do BETTER this way?

Cubs Lose:
Sosa
Clement
Alou
A year on Maddux's arm

Cubs gain:
Michael Barrett


Cards Lose:
Rentaria
Haren

Cards Gain:
Mulder
Eckstein
Grudzelanik
M.Myers

Somehow the Cubs will do BETTER this way?
just a hunch, but they also essentially gain Prior, Wood, Borowski and Nomar.

just a hunch, but they also essentially gain Prior, Wood, Borowski and Nomar.

Nomar is done like dinner.

Prior and Wood each got 20 starts last year so its not like they didnt have time to do anything. Your team wont win many games when you let two of your top 5 RBI guys walk and you bring in...Jerry Hairston.If the Cubs add Magglio, I may consider them to be close to the Cards, but they still wont be better.

Nomar is done like dinner.

Prior and Wood each got 20 starts last year so its not like they didnt have time to do anything. Your team wont win many games when you let two of your top 5 RBI guys walk and you bring in...Jerry Hairston.If the Cubs add Magglio, I may consider them to be close to the Cards, but they still wont be better.
Cards are chronic underachievers, lets not forget that. Last year according the recent history is the exception.

My playoff predictions:

ALDS
Yankees over Angels 3-2
Red Sox over Twins 3-1

NLDS
Cardinals over Braves 3-2
Marlins over Dodgers 3-2

ALCS
Yankees over Red Sox 4-2

NLCS
Cardinals over Marlins 4-1

World Series
Yankees over Cardinals 4-2

Blue Jays have $20,000,000 more to spend now, the owners given the green light to spend $210,000,000 over the next 3 years on players.

Hopefully that bumps them up into contention.

Blue Jays have $20,000,000 more to spend now, the owners given the green light to spend $210,000,000 over the next 3 years on players.

Hopefully that bumps them up into contention.
it will have absolutly no effect for this upcoming season though because there are no good free agents left.

it will have absolutly no effect for this upcoming season though because there are no good free agents left.

Some guy named Magglio may disagree with that.

Some guy named Magglio may disagree with that.
the guy will probably never be the same again. Looks like he will go the way of Albert Belle.

Guy gets injured ONCE and you act like his head fell off his shoulders.

it will have absolutly no effect for this upcoming season though because there are no good free agents left.
They'll have plenty to trade for established, higher ticket players this summer. Several teams are putting all their eggs in the off-season free agent basket - some by choice, others by necessity.

----------------------------

Dynamo,
Ricciardi wouldn't touch Ordonez if he's asking for five years. One year? You bet. Two? Mmmm, I'm not so sure. I thought Boras off something special to get Beltran that contract, but getting Ordonez five years (I've read they're asking for SEVEN) will be something to behold.

And Garciaparra is done? I think you're going to take a bath on that prediction. He didn't have a great 2003, but he's still only 31 and headed for a hitter's park. Looking around the NL, I'm going on the record as willing to be colored surprised if he doesn't start for his league in the All-Star game (and not because they stuffed the Wrigley ballot boxes). Furcal, Greene, Wilson, Rollins - they're all good ML shortstops, but Garciaparra is a significantly better hitter. They guy had an off-year and he still trotted around with an 840 OPS.

As for Hairston, I think you're missing how good of an addition he was simply because of who went the other way. In other words, that they received Jerry Hairston and not a resin bag is utterly irrelevent (if it were me, I would have also added that they're not only paying Hairston's salary, but $10M additional to get rid of the guy they traded). They moved a problem, and while I don't want to sound like the Cubs should be praised for making a bad situation tolerable, but moving forward into 2005, finding a remedy to the Sosa situation was an absolute must.

it will have absolutly no effect for this upcoming season though because there are no good free agents left.They can take on contracts late in the season such as Barry Zito.

With one of the best system of prospects in the game, the Jays can easily trade for guys like Zito if they become available now that there's $20,000,000 available.

Guy gets injured ONCE and you act like his head fell off his shoulders.

Before being injured last season, Maggs was one of the most durable and consistent hitters in the game....Season after season of +.300 averages, 30+ hr's and 100+ rbi's....As long as he is healthy, there is absolutely no reason why he won't go back to posting those types of numbers......He's still in the prime of his career.....

Before being injured last season, Maggs was one of the most durable and consistent hitters in the game....Season after season of +.300 averages, 30+ hr's and 100+ rbi's....As long as he is healthy, there is absolutely no reason why he won't go back to posting those types of numbers......He's still in the prime of his career.....

remember are you talking to FOTS

They can take on contracts late in the season such as Barry Zito.

With one of the best system of prospects in the game, the Jays can easily trade for guys like Zito if they become available now that there's $20,000,000 available.
Zito still has two years on his contract. I think maybe this might be possible next winter, but I don't think he'll be available this year. Oakland has the money now to keep him.

Before being injured last season, Maggs was one of the most durable and consistent hitters in the game....Season after season of +.300 averages, 30+ hr's and 100+ rbi's....As long as he is healthy, there is absolutely no reason why he won't go back to posting those types of numbers......He's still in the prime of his career.....
I'm not disagreeing, Maggs was awesome, one of the top hitters in the game, however, this injury appears to be more serious than just any injury, there are legitimate questions as to whether or not he can return as an impact player.

I'm not disagreeing, Maggs was awesome, one of the top hitters in the game, however, this injury appears to be more serious than just any injury, there are legitimate questions as to whether or not he can return as an impact player.

The legitimate questions are, "How far will he hit the ball this year?" and "How many bags will he steal?". Seriously, the guy has clearance to go for spring training and you act like he's getting wheeled around to these meetings with teams in a wheelchair.

It's time for THE predicitions!

AL East:

New York
Boston (WC)
Baltimore
Toronto
Tampa Bay

AL Central:

Minnesota
Chicago
Cleveland
Detriot
Kansas City

AL West:

Oakland
Texas
Seattle
Anaheim

NL East:

Atlanta
New York (WC)
Florida
Washington
Philadelphia

NL Central:

St Louis
Houston
Pittsburgh
Chicago
Cincinnati
Milwaukee

NL West:

San Diego
San Francisco
Los Angeles
Arizona
Colorado

I'll give this a shot:

AL east:
New York
Boston (WC)
Baltimore
Toronto
Tampa Bay

AL Central
Minnesota
Cleveland
Chicago
Detroit
Kansas City

AL West
Anaheim
Texas
Oakland
Seattle

NL East
Florida
New York
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Washington

NL Central
St. Louis
Chicago
Houston
Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
Cincinnati

NL West
Dodgers
Padres (WC)
Giants
D-Back
Rockies

AL East
NYY
Boston(WC)
Baltimore
TB
Toronto

AL Central
Minnesota
Cleveland
Chicago
Detroit
KC

AL West
Anaheim
Oakland
Seattle
Texas

NL East
Atlanta
Florida
NYM
Philly
DC

NL Central
Chicago
St Louis(WC)
Houston
Pittsburgh
Milwaukee

NL West
San Diego
LA
San Francisco
Arizona
Colorado

I'm not disagreeing, Maggs was awesome, one of the top hitters in the game, however, this injury appears to be more serious than just any injury, there are legitimate questions as to whether or not he can return as an impact player.

It was a pretty serious injury, but if he is cleared to play, then it should be assumed that he is 100% healthy. And if he's 100% healthy, then he should be good to go back to his usual stellar production. The only thing that might suffer a tad is his SB total, but that's not what he is payed the big bucks to do....

San Diego is getting alot of positive vibes from people on here with lots of 1st Place and Wild Card selections. I think they have all the right peices in place to make a run at a division championship. I don't think they will surprise a whole lot of people because they did have a good season last year, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them become one of the elite NL teams.........

It's time for THE predicitions!

AL West:

Oakland
Texas
Seattle
Anaheim


Oakland does upgrade at catcher, but they lose two of their best pitchers for prospects, and they finish first, while the team they lost out to last year upgrades in the outfield (Finley instead of Guillen), and they also gain another starter and an upgrade in 3rd base(McPherson over Glaus for a bit and Figgins), 2nd base(Figgins over Kennedy) SS(Cabrera over Eckstein) and DH(Rivera/Kotchman/whoever else gets it over Salmon/Davanon), and finish last?

Oakland does upgrade at catcher, but they lose two of their best pitchers for prospects, and they finish first, while the team they lost out to last year upgrades in the outfield (Finley instead of Guillen), and they also gain another starter and an upgrade in 3rd base(McPherson over Glaus for a bit and Figgins), 2nd base(Figgins over Kennedy) SS(Cabrera over Eckstein) and DH(Rivera/Kotchman/whoever else gets it over Salmon/Davanon), and finish last?

yup

yup
Except for the McPherson stuff. There's no way on God's green Earth that McPherson can match Glaus toe-to-toe at this stage in their respective careers. The former is a far better value, but the latter is much better.

In the West, I think the Angels would have to be considered favorites and I think many people are undervaluing what the Dodgers have worked this off-season.

--------------------------

Jared,
Your boldness and willingness to throw caution to the wind tells me you have a future as an official parachute tester. :-)

Why would we presume Ordonez is completely healthy? He might be cleared to play, but he had bone marrow edema. I looked that up, just for S's & G's, and found that this ailment causes cartilage loss and bone degeneration. Ordonez has already had two knee surgeries to repair cartilage.

Why not presume he's NOT completely healthy? Presume what it would do to saddle your organization with a five-year, $70M contract for a guy with a degenerative condition in his knees. Why would anybody give a player with a serious injury and no game time since a five-year, mega-contract? (Wait a minute, I answered my own question faster than I could type it: because people are stupid.)

If we're talking about making an investment in the player, it would be foolish to not consider the negative potential of action. You can always get another player; you only get one chance to handcuff your organization. The question with Magglio revolves around his health. If he were willing to take a one-year contract, he would have long ago known where he was going to open spring training. It's the length of the contract, not necessarily the annual amount, that's scary for a guy with this problem.

yup

Does it have anything to do with you being an A's fan?

Blue Jays have $20,000,000 more to spend now, the owners given the green light to spend $210,000,000 over the next 3 years on players.

Hopefully that bumps them up into contention.

a couple guys i've liked over the years..

scott sullivan
kip wells
livan hernandez
tony armas

any of these work? i'm not a huge stat follower, but in my followings i've found these guys to be decently solid... livan is pretty much a personal fav, and is a workhorse.. a little expensive i believe though (around 8 million ?? :dunno: )

a couple guys i've liked over the years..

scott sullivan
kip wells
livan hernandez
tony armas

any of these work? i'm not a huge stat follower, but in my followings i've found these guys to be decently solid... livan is pretty much a personal fav, and is a workhorse.. a little expensive i believe though (around 8 million ?? :dunno: )

Livan is awesome.

Except for the McPherson stuff. There's no way on God's green Earth that McPherson can match Glaus toe-to-toe at this stage in their respective careers. The former is a far better value, but the latter is much better.



I was talking mainly about last year, when Glaus barely played any 3rd base, and guys like Figgins, Amezaga, Halter, and even McPherson filled in every now and then. I think Figgins played the bulk of 3rd base, though. No way is he an upgrade on Glaus, but Glaus was barely there when they won the AL West last year, so McPherson's an upgrade on everyone, except Glaus, that they put back there.

I was talking mainly about last year, when Glaus barely played any 3rd base, and guys like Figgins, Amezaga, Halter, and even McPherson filled in every now and then. I think Figgins played the bulk of 3rd base, though. No way is he an upgrade on Glaus, but Glaus was barely there when they won the AL West last year, so McPherson's an upgrade on everyone, except Glaus, that they put back there.
I can't argue with that.

kip wells


It would take alot to move Kipper from the Pirates. Management loves the guy. As do the players and fans.

He was injured most of last year but he's still the only constant we have on that pitching staff and is pretty cheap considering his output.

It would take quite a bit to land him.

yeah, figures... :)

It's time for THE predicitions!


AL West:

Oakland
Texas
Seattle
Anaheim



geez no bias here is there???
:lol :lol: thanks for the laugh, i needed that

Does it have anything to do with you being an A's fan?

yup

Why would we presume Ordonez is completely healthy? He might be cleared to play, but he had bone marrow edema. I looked that up, just for S's & G's, and found that this ailment causes cartilage loss and bone degeneration. Ordonez has already had two knee surgeries to repair cartilage.

Hey Stanley, do you have any web addresses for the bone marrow edema information? I googled it but could only come up with articles about linking the appearance of bone marrow edemas in MRI's with worsening osteoarthritis, which in itself sounds bad for a baseball player to have in his knees. What I found caused me to have a few questions, though:

What exactly is bone marrow edema? From what I have gathered, it's a collection of fluid in the bone marrow, but it's only what I've pieced together.

Is it the bone marrow edema itself that causes the cartilage loss and bone degradation, or does it encourage the worsening of other degenerative conditions like osteoarthritis? Is it a doer or is it a helper?

Did you find any information on possible treatments to fend off his condition from worsening? Given the relative success of Yzerman's osteotomy, would that be a possible (drastic) solution for Ordonez?

I look at Ordonez and while his health problems are ominous, but he had six seasons of playing the vast majority of his games, and appears to take very good care of himself; so it's not like he's shown the tendency to be fragile or suffer from David Wells Syndrome. As long as a team can get an out clause or two fitted in after three seasons, I don't think a big contract is necessarily a bad thing. Just a personal opinion, but Magglio strikes me as a person who will find his way onto the field more often than not. I really think it will take something going very wrong to keep him from playing a majority of his games.

This is one I looked at: http://www.hopkins-arthritis.som.jhmi.edu/edu/acr2003/oa-clinical.html

Literally (there's no sarcasm here), the results on google with "bone marrow edema" were fairly decent. You still have to poke around a little, as the papers look rather technical, but there be whales there. Don't confuse me with somebody in the medical field! :-) I was a medic ages ago in the Army, but that's only because they thought I'd be better at that than at blowing stuff up (combat engineer), and I was only 18 at the time and not bright enough to protest. I digress.

I don't have any direct knowledge, Winger, just what I deduced from a few articles: that cartilage loss and bone marrow edema are associated problems, and Magglio's two knee surgeries may indeed be related to the edema.

Forget that, though. If your conviction is that signing players past their prime to long-term, expensive guaranteed contracts is a losing proposition because the player doesn't produce like he did before and the organization is financially handcuffed, overpaying for average production that could have had for replacement level at a literal fraction of the investment, and yet you have a very good 31-year-old player with a potentially chronic knee problem who wants a long-term guaranteed contract, how do you get past that to get the player? Well, we use subjective qualities, such as:

- he seems to take good care of himself,
- he's played the greater portion of most years in the past, and
- medical treatments helped Yzerman, and probably could help Ordonez,
- Illitch is a rich man, he can sell a few more pizzas to make up for it if it goes bad (you didn't write this one)

...to make the gap between what you believe and what you know irrelevent. In other words, if the Tigers feel they cannot do without Ordonez, they will ignore the warnings and get him at any cost to the organization. Instead of targeting a player they want based on a balance between production and financial cost, they will be looking at the former, sprinkling in some well-placed subjectivity, and completely ignoring the latter. Bridging the gap between what we know as fact and what we believe is is not uncommon in everyday life - go read the Political Forum for replete examples. (I'm not really directing this part at you, Winger, or mean to sound like I'm sermoning. It's that I just polished the soap box and felt it needed to be stood on a little for no particular reason at all.)

The problem with Ordonez isn't so much one single thing, but a combination of many. It's not that he's asking for too much in one season - for a player of his caliber, he's not. It's not that he's too old - he's not. It's certainly not that he can't produce - the boy can hit. It's also not really a problem that he has chronic knee problems. It's that he wants a team to give him a king's ransom of money for a long period of time, when he will be old, when he will not produce, when his knees may be unmanageable.

To be fair, you suggested that the team might be wise to look for an "out" clause for bad health. I think they should barter down to make the guaranteed significant money something they can handle, and include incentives for health and production. Now that the Cubs have solved their problem and helped Baltimore with one of their own, Magglio's bargaining power has gone down somewhat.

I would cheer and cheer and cheer for the Tigers to walk away at that price. In fact, they would be wise to step back and ask what is best for their organizational health (it ain't Magglio for any more than one year). However, I fear they will convince themselves that they need him because they haven't done much on the free agent market, and in order to keep up with the Joneses will kill the financial flexibility of their organization.

-------------------------

As for Wells, consider that he's guaranteed $8M over two years (an average of $4M/yr) and with incentives could earn $18M over two years. That's a far cry from Ordonez's request, and a completely different investment.

Speaking of Angels, I think the Angels have had a mediocre offseason to say the least.

1. Jose Guillen for I think Rivera and Izturis.
This is a GREAT deal long-term, but they do lose Guillen's production. This is along the lines of "Jim Bowden is an idiot." I do think that some sort of Davanon/Rivera platoon at LF will be just as good as Guillen.

2. Letting Troy Glaus go.
Did they get a draft pick out of this? I can't remember if they did or not, and that contract the Diamondbacks gave him was just stupid, but even if he does DH, he's pretty much going to hit .350/.525, which is VERY good, and losing that production will hurt. I'm not familiar with McPherson.

3. Letting Troy Percival go.
This is not a bad move ON ITS OWN, simply because a 5 million dollar 50IP pitcher just isn't worth it, not to mention his declining K rate, but OVERALL this is a bad move for the Angels, simply because Francisco Rodriguez will have to CLOSE rather than pitch the high leverage 7th and 8th innnings that he's doing now, reducing his value.

4. Cabrera over Eckstein.
This has to be among the top 5 worst moves this offseason. Why would you spend 5 million more per year to upgrade from ECKSTEIN to CABRERA? They're practically the same hitter, except Cabrera has a better throwing arm. That throwing arm is not worth FIVE MILLION DOLLARS and a draft pick (Thanks Anaheim).


1.You're hard pressed to find a better deal this offseason. Guillen was a cancer in the clubhouse, wasn't even in the playoffs, everybody knew he was going to be traded, and the Angels got arguably a better fielder than him in Rivera, not to mention Izturis. Garrett Anderson will more than replace Guillen in LF.

2.Well, I'm mad they didn't offer him arbitration at least(to get a DP or keep him around for another year at a low salary as DH), but you don't sign a 3B, as good as he is, to a big deal when you have Dallas McPherson. The only bad part about this move is not offering him arbitration, which he wouldn't have accepted.

3.Not a bad move at all. They lose his big salary, and K-Rod has to start closing sometime. He's going to be one of the elite closers in the game, and keeping Percival around doesn't help him any.

4.I agree it wasn't a great move, but Cabrera could have a great season in Anaheim. Eckstein is a great team-player, and a pretty good fielder, but Cabrera more than matches him in defensive ability, and is a significant upgrade at bat. Paying $5 million more for that probably wasn't smart, but we'll see.



They didn't have a great offseason, I agree, with them missing out on every SP out there, but alot of those moves were good, and they also signed Steve Finley to play CF, so I'd say they upgraded if anything.

This is one I looked at: http://www.hopkins-arthritis.som.jhmi.edu/edu/acr2003/oa-clinical.html

Literally (there's no sarcasm here), the results on google with "bone marrow edema" were fairly decent. You still have to poke around a little, as the papers look rather technical, but there be whales there. Don't confuse me with somebody in the medical field! :-) I was a medic ages ago in the Army, but that's only because they thought I'd be better at that than at blowing stuff up (combat engineer), and I was only 18 at the time and not bright enough to protest. I digress.

I don't have any direct knowledge, Winger, just what I deduced from a few articles: that cartilage loss and bone marrow edema are associated problems, and Magglio's two knee surgeries may indeed be related to the edema.

Forget that, though. If your conviction is that signing players past their prime to long-term, expensive guaranteed contracts is a losing proposition because the player doesn't produce like he did before and the organization is financially handcuffed, overpaying for average production that could have had for replacement level at a literal fraction of the investment, and yet you have a very good 31-year-old player with a potentially chronic knee problem who wants a long-term guaranteed contract, how do you get past that to get the player? Well, we use subjective qualities, such as:

- he seems to take good care of himself,
- he's played the greater portion of most years in the past, and
- medical treatments helped Yzerman, and probably could help Ordonez,
- Illitch is a rich man, he can sell a few more pizzas to make up for it if it goes bad (you didn't write this one)

...to make the gap between what you believe and what you know irrelevent. In other words, if the Tigers feel they cannot do without Ordonez, they will ignore the warnings and get him at any cost to the organization. Instead of targeting a player they want based on a balance between production and financial cost, they will be looking at the former, sprinkling in some well-placed subjectivity, and completely ignoring the latter. Bridging the gap between what we know as fact and what we believe is is not uncommon in everyday life - go read the Political Forum for replete examples. (I'm not really directing this part at you, Winger, or mean to sound like I'm sermoning. It's that I just polished the soap box and felt it needed to be stood on a little for no particular reason at all.)

The problem with Ordonez isn't so much one single thing, but a combination of many. It's not that he's asking for too much in one season - for a player of his caliber, he's not. It's not that he's too old - he's not. It's certainly not that he can't produce - the boy can hit. It's also not really a problem that he has chronic knee problems. It's that he wants a team to give him a king's ransom of money for a long period of time, when he will be old, when he will not produce, when his knees may be unmanageable.

To be fair, you suggested that the team might be wise to look for an "out" clause for bad health. I think they should barter down to make the guaranteed significant money something they can handle, and include incentives for health and production. Now that the Cubs have solved their problem and helped Baltimore with one of their own, Magglio's bargaining power has gone down somewhat.

I would cheer and cheer and cheer for the Tigers to walk away at that price. In fact, they would be wise to step back and ask what is best for their organizational health (it ain't Magglio for any more than one year). However, I fear they will convince themselves that they need him because they haven't done much on the free agent market, and in order to keep up with the Joneses will kill the financial flexibility of their organization.

Looks like the Tigers may have bitten the bullet on it, and inked Ordonez (http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/ny-spbase054136186feb05,0,7971363.story?coll=ny-mets-print).

I have mixed feelings on it. In principle I agree with what you say, Stan, but I also have faith in Dombrowski not screwing it up beyond all recognition. The more I've read about Ordonez's injury, the more leery I am about it, though. I do believe those "subjective qualities" (I really like that phrase) deserve to be taken into considering at certain times, but I don't see how a player who is suffering from a possibly chronic, degenerative problem that there doesn't appear a ready medical fix for is one of those times. As a Tiger fan, I'm obligated to hope for the best here, though.

The good news is that they apparently did get their out clause and will still have a bucket of money coming off the payroll again next season. So even if Ordonez tanks, I don't think it will cripple them. Meanwhile, he potentially makes the lineup a whole helluva lot better and could make Detroit a more attractive team for future free agents. If Dombrowski successfully limited the risks, I can see taking the leap because of the high rewards; but if the Tigers get stuck for five unproductive years, it's going to look like a horrible mistake.