Series Talk: WCSF Vancouver Canucks vs Edmonton Oilers. (Series tied 3-3)

[Leonardo87]

Vancouver Canucks vs Edmonton Oilers
WCSF

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[LuLover96]

It’s not facts. The actual facts is that Vancouver was the #1 seed and swept the Oilers in the regular season. They beat them so bad in Game 1, it got the team spiraling for months and the coach fired.

Vancouver has bullied the Oilers all year. I think saying Edmonton is the favourite is just a reason to bash the Oilers more if they lose and to diminish their accomplish if they win.

It’s so weird to see how the narrative is shifting from what it was.

Oilers were considered a cup favourite in the middle of their prime after a disastrous start. They were picked by most pundits to win in 4 or 5 against Vancouver, and favourites on HFB by a wide margin, because they have the top end skill and one of the best D pairs in the league. There is no 5 man unit better than what they’ve routinely put out, and they’re almost as dangerous with just McDavid or just Drai out there. The problem is and always has been depth, defence, and goaltending, but their historic power play is usually enough to overcome that. Not to mention, Drai is 29 and one year removed from being a UFA. Bouchard is a year away from EK money, and McDavid is 27 and 2 years away from $15+ million.

This season is cup or bust for Edmonton, make no mistake. It may be the 2nd last year of McDraichard so there’s definitely pressure to capitalize.

For the series in general, these last three games will probably come down to how strict the refs enforce the rules. If Edmonton averages 3+ PP’s a game, they probably win. Otherwise, I think we figure out our 5v5 play with home ice advantage. It’s worth noting that games 5-7 are usually a bloodbath with nothing being called, but this series might be different.

 

[LuLover96]

One more thing. How do McDavid and Draisaitl usually do in the last 2-3 games of a series in which they average 26 minutes a night with games every other night? I know they’re freaks of nature and I’m assuming they’re both fully healthy, but should we expect more uncharacteristic brain farts or less bursts of speed as the series gets rougher, tougher, and they get relied on more?

 

[Rowlet]

Nice try putting pressure on Edmonton lol. The Canucks were the #1 seed and whooped the Oilers all year. They should be the favourites

Regardless, it has a good series with incredible moments and heartbreaks for both sides

The Canucks may have done the Oilers a favour by whooping Skinner’s ass. He and Woodcroft were our biggest limitations last playoffs. Pickard is a man on a mission for redemption right now

bro what did you wake up on a different planet?

the consensus was that the Canucks would get smoked

 

[2for1PizzaPastuh]

That's not what the high dangers or zone time shows. The Canucks dominated all of the first game. They were over 70% on the deserve to win o meter

Oilers have been at 80% for the last three games lol, not close.

 

[Regal]

Oilers have been at 80% for the last three games lol, not close.

That never takes into account score effects. Canucks prevented the Oilers from generating much of anything dangerous after having the lead in game 3 but in doing so conceded zone time and Oilers fans think that was domination. They tried to do the same thing in game 2 but then lost the plot and actually got dominated the last 10 minutes of the game. The team that’s won has deserved it every time so far this series.

 

[rea]

Oilers have been at 80% for the last three games lol, not close.

I can agree that they've held the advantage last 3 games, no shame in it. It happens, they've controlled alot of the offensive zone time when their top 2 players were on the ice, which was almost half the game.

Alas, it's tied 2-2, and it's because van is a hard team to put away. I never had this feeling with past teams that I do now about this one, which is that it always gives that aura that no lead is insurmountable. It's not guaranteed, but you yourself have seen it happen 2 times this series already.

Its been a great series, with alot of momentum swings, trash talk has been back n forth depending on the winner that day lol.

Alas, advanced metrics won't guarantee a W, so if my team gets dominated and still wins, that's all that matters in the end to me, as it should to everyone. Goes for both sides trying to bring up stats trying to prove their superiority.

Excited for tmw! I'll be at the game, weeeeeee

 

[ijuka]

That never takes into account score effects. Canucks prevented the Oilers from generating much of anything dangerous after having the lead in game 3 but in doing so conceded zone time and Oilers fans think that was domination. They tried to do the same thing in game 2 but then lost the plot and actually got dominated the last 10 minutes of the game. The team that’s won has deserved it every time so far this series.

You use many words but when I look at naturalstattrick it says high danger chances 18-9 in favor of oilers, scoring chances 41-17 in favor of oilers, expected goals 5.24-2.35 in favor of oilers. You vastly overestimate score effects.

The team that’s won has deserved it every time so far this series.

Wonder what your predictive model's log loss is for the season.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

You use many words but when I look at naturalstattrick it says high danger chances 18-9 in favor of oilers, scoring chances 41-17 in favor of oilers, expected goals 5.24-2.35 in favor of oilers. You vastly overestimate score effects.


Wonder what your predictive model's log loss is for the season.

Nah

 

[Regal]

You use many words but when I look at naturalstattrick it says high danger chances 18-9 in favor of oilers, scoring chances 41-17 in favor of oilers, expected goals 5.24-2.35 in favor of oilers. You vastly overestimate score effects.


Wonder what your predictive model's log loss is for the season.

I mean watching the game would help. It was pretty obviously strategy. Canucks weren’t even trying to breakout offensively.

I mean you’re one of the people who was consistently chirping the Canucks expected goals at the start of the year and were repeatedly told the same thing that they had early leads that affected the numbers and you ended up clearly wrong so I wouldn’t be the one questioning others’ predictive models

 

[David71]

pivotal game tommorow for both teams. if edmonton wins they win the series. if vancouver wins, hopefully they have that killer instinct to put the oilers away on their home ice.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

I mean watching the game would help. It was pretty obviously strategy. Canucks weren’t even trying to breakout offensively.

I mean you’re one of the people who was consistently chirping the Canucks expected goals at the start of the year and were repeatedly told the same thing that they had early leads that affected the numbers and you ended up clearly wrong so I wouldn’t be the one questioning others’ predictive models

Oilers trolls (not fanbase, to be fair) are very arrogant.

It's funny cause just 1 game ago many in their market were concerned & calling for McD/Drai to be separated given their depth was failing against the Canucks superior depth.

But now it turns out depth was never a problem at all & all 4 lines were actually dominating us the entire time.

How quickly things change. Begs the question why is Knoblauch getting props for a completely unnecessary adjustment.

 

[ijuka]

I mean watching the game would help. It was pretty obviously strategy. Canucks weren’t even trying to breakout offensively.

I mean you’re one of the people who was consistently chirping the Canucks expected goals at the start of the year and were repeatedly told the same thing that they had early leads that affected the numbers and you ended up clearly wrong so I wouldn’t be the one questioning others’ predictive models

Yeah, I did watch the game. The whole game.

Oilers completely dominated that game, and Skinner let in numerous softies—absolute garbage goals and backbreakers. Any halfway decent goaltending and they win that at least 9 out of 10.

You can, of course, paint it any way you like if you just look at results after the fact. "They won, so of course they were better on the ice." That's why I asked how your predictive model's doing.


Since you mentioned score effects, I told you that score effects probably don't matter as much as you think they do. You started your post with score effects, so don't now try to pretend that you weren't trying to make a point about them. Score effects do factor in, but not enough to bridge a gap of 3 xG. Might be more relevant if the xG at the end had been 2.8 vs 2.5 or something along those lines.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

Spaghetti broken in half, oil in the water… damn I hope the Canucks never win another game now

Agreed lol. I’ll even add in the microwaved sauce

Sauce? He may as well have just added food coloring.

Jake Ottinger let in a couple Skinner level goals today. That's strange. I was told by haughty fans that the Avs Stars series was on a whole other level.

It's OK to admit it.

You are the kid with the trumpet, aren't you?

 

[Rpenny]

So pretty much fans will want an oiler suspended for smiling at a canuck

 

[BertMcDrai]

Oilers trolls (not fanbase, to be fair) are very arrogant.

It's funny cause just 1 game ago many in their market were concerned & calling for McD/Drai to be separated given their depth was failing against the Canucks superior depth.

But now it turns out depth was never a problem at all & all 4 lines were actually dominating us the entire time.

How quickly things change. Begs the question why is Knoblauch getting props for a completely unnecessary adjustment.

Edm coach has addressed it to the media that the only reason he has put Mcdrai together was because Drai was injured.

 

[Rpenny]

Good article by Spec. Canucks fans have a weird fetish with complaining about refs. Their fanbase is stuck on celebrating coming in seclnd in 1994 and 2011.

Calm down, there is no refs' conspiracy favouring Oilers over Canucks

In hockey, they say that if you arrive at the rink wondering about the officiating, you are halfway to being beaten. But is the officiating the real issue between the Oilers and Canucks? Mark Spector has some thoughts.

www.sportsnet.ca

And oiler fans NEVER complain about the refs?

 

[BertMcDrai]

Silovs has surprised and impressed for sure rising to the occasion, but a big part is how the defence and team d have performed in front of him.

Much more conservative defensively than if Demko were in net. Don’t take as many risks offensively either.

Silovs won last years MVP at the world Championship...so it's not as surprising as many people are making it to be...this guy is good maybe legit.

 

[Pucklington]

And oiler fans NEVER complain about the refs?

Every fanbase complains about the refs, injuries, bias...

 

[VanOriginal]

Im looking forward to a great game. I fully expect both teams to come out with their best, it will be a back and forth high speed, intense contest. Which ever team wins tonight will finish it off in game 6 in Edmonton. This won't go 7. Hopefully Petey, Mik and few others wake up and play with heart this game,otherwise Saturday will be there last this game this season.

 

[Belos]

Edmonton Oilers

83 Nugent-Hopkins, 94 McDavid, 85 Hyman
75 Holloway, 92 Draisaitl, 76 Kane
77 Foegele, 77 McLeod, 74 Perry,
74 Janmark, 74 Ryan, 73 Brown
77 Henrique
74 Gagner

86 Ekholm, 84 Bouchard(+)
80 Nurse, 78 Desharnais
79 Kulak, 77 Ceci

79 Skinner
80 Pickard


Vancouver Canucks

77 Suter, 87 Miller, 84 Boeser
76 Mikheyev, 84 Pettersson , 75 Lafferty
83 Joshua(+), 81 Lindholm, 84 Garland(+)
71 Karlsson, 76 Blueger, 74 Aman
74 Di Giuseppe
78 Hoglander

89 Hughes(+), 79 Hronek
83 Soucy(+), 77 Myers
82 Zadorov, 76 Juulsen
81 Cole

81 Silov(+)
87 Demko (++)
79 DeSmith

 

[bobholly39]

McDavid has 1 point in the past 2 games. He's scored at a 1.92 ppg over the past 3 playoffs (Lemieux's peak was 1.98, so he's literally rivalling peak Lemieux right now). I have to assume he has a big game in store tonight, with minimum 3 or 4 points.

 

[Rpenny]

Every fanbase complains about the refs, injuries, bias...

That is my point when oiler fans complain about the canucks complaining

 

[Tuna99]

Dont think Edmonton can win this series with a goalie who doesn’t move his hands or Calvin Pickard.

 

[Pucklington]

That is my point when oiler fans complain about the canucks complaining

My point is when Canucks fans complain about Oilers fans who complain about Av's fans, who complain about Stars fans who complain about Vegas fans who complain about LA fans who complain about Dubios.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

It’s not facts. The actual facts is that Vancouver was the #1 seed and swept the Oilers in the regular season. They beat them so bad in Game 1, it got the team spiraling for months and the coach fired.

Vancouver has bullied the Oilers all year. I think saying Edmonton is the favourite is just a reason to bash the Oilers more if they lose and to diminish their accomplish if they win.

You can't be serious.

We came into this season trying to stop being a garbage fire.

Your stars came into this season saying, and I quote "It's cup or bust".

The fact that we had a better season, while still lacking much playoff experience, doesn't make us a favorite over a team at your point in the competitive cycle.

Unless you're saying you think the Oilers are already failures by the metric of 'cup or bust' and it will be complete fluky luck should they actually get there?