There's obviously going to be some fluctuations, but Joshua also increased his shot totals from last year. Increased ice time helps. There's been a marked increase in shooting percentage since ~2020. Saad has shot over 15% the past 5 seasons. Kuzmenko is over 18%. Marcus Foligno (aside from last season) has shot 17.9%+. Barbashev has shot 17+% in his career. Nic Dowd has shot over 19% last two seasons.
The point is that Goodrow was a 4C with low offensive production at the time he signed with the Rangers. Goodrow has never come close to what Joshua has put up this season.
Barbashev is almost a shooting % unicorn in a career sense for a middle-six player. Dowd and Foligno are both below 14% for their careers, Saad is under 13%. Expecting anybody, never mind a third-liner who doesn't play much on the PP, to shoot 20% in the long term is a mug's game, even allowing for the increase in goals in recent seasons.
The Goodrow contract, accounting for expected upcoming cap increases, would be around $3.9M-$4M x 6 plus a 15-team NTC for all six seasons. No thanks. For that money, I'd limit it to a three-year term without any movement protection, which would put him more in line with Vatrano-- who, like Goodrow, went to market to get his contract. Usually there's a small hometown discount comparatively when a guy who is coming off of a good season re-signs with his current team. $3.75M x 3 seems like a fair basis, with some shaving off of the annual cap hit for additional term and/or movement protection.