Buffalo Bills Post-Draft Discussion

[Jim Bob]

Brandon Beane's message to KC is clear: Bring it on.

The GM was fearless at the top of the draft. Keon Coleman was the pick — not Xavier Worthy — and, now, the 2024 Buffalo Bills need to follow his lead in the cutthroat AFC.

www.golongtd.com

This was an interesting read given everything he's written about the Bills lately.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Way too early final 53:

QB: Allen, Trubisky

RB: Cook, Davis, T Johnson, Gilliam (FB)

WR: Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, Hollins, X

(X = any number of guys currently on the roster, or a FA)

TE: Knox, Kincaid, Morris

OT: Dawkins, Brown, Collins, Van Demark

IOL: McGovern, Torrence, D Edwards, Van Pran, Clapp/Anderson

DL: Oliver, Jones, Carter, A Johnson, D Williams

EDGE: Rousseau, Epenesa, Miller, Solomon, X

(X = Toohill, Jonathan or a FA)

LB: Milano, Bernard, D Williams, Morrow, Spector/Ulofoshio

CB: Douglas, Benford, Elam, Ingram/FA

NB: T Johnson, Lewis

S: Rapp, M Edwards, Bishop, Hamlin

K: Bass

P: Any of the three guys on the roster

LS: Ferguson

KR/PR: Hardy

Offence: 23
Defence: 25
ST: 4
Total: 52

Plus one wild card (eg an extra WR, extra OL, etc).

 

[Jim Bob]

I keep coming back to the Bills seeing Keon Coleman as a rich man's Gabe Davis. We know that Josh talked highly of Gabe. It does not surprise me that Josh looked at the WRs in this draft and really liked Coleman who is a more athletic Gabe Davis-type WR who has much better hands.



Plus, he's made a pretty good first impression with everyone with the Bills.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

The other barrier to making a trade for a big cap hit guy is that they have to fit the cap hit of a guy they trade for BEFORE they can restructure him.

Deebo's 2024 cap hit is $28.6M. Aiyuk's 2024 cap hit is $14.1M (hard number due to 5th year option). Higgins's 2024 cap hit is $21.8M (hard number due to franchise tag). Sutton's 2024 cap hit is $17.4M.

That is why Beane dismissed the idea that they could afford to trade for a big money WR1. They cannot restructure everyone on the roster and fit the cap hits under the cap.

Despite previous reports, the salary cap is real. And this is part of the mini-reset and dealing with $50M+ in dead cap space in 2024.

Their 2025 cap situation is a lot better and they have a lot of draft pick capital. I think Beane is shocking everyone by taking the patient route to this offseason. It won't shock me if he gets back to being more aggressive next offseason where you could see a big move up on draft day. Or, they trade up from the Minnesota 2nd and end up with 2 1st round picks and 1 2nd.

I don't expect the big sexy trade for a dreamy WR1 that will make $30M+ per year, though. I cannot see Beane wanting to spend $80M+ per year on QB1 & WR1.

To be fair - nobody in this thread is suggesting a Deebo type move will happen. But the fact that it's being talked about/entertained by media personalities is embarrassing. I can only assume they are doing it for clicks.

I too see the team being in a very good position next offseason. But I'd hope that Beane would have learned his lesson with big moves (eg Miller) & just continues to do what he's good at.

It's way too early to think about next year's draft - but having that Minnesota R2 will give him more options than they had this year, for sure. Maybe they also get a R3 comp pick too?

I keep posting this - but I think you can look at the year KC had when they traded Hill, what they have done since & use that as a blueprint. No splashy FA signings or big moves in the draft - just extend your core guys, draft sensibly & fill out any other holes on your roster with short term FAs. Beane's great at doing all of these things.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I keep coming back to the Bills seeing Keon Coleman as a rich man's Gabe Davis. We know that Josh talked highly of Gabe. It does not surprise me that Josh looked at the WRs in this draft and really liked Coleman who is a more athletic Gabe Davis-type WR who has much better hands.



Plus, he's made a pretty good first impression with everyone with the Bills.

I had Jalynn Polk higher on my board than most others did for this exact reason.

Given that everyone expects the run game to be emphasised more in Brady's system... I can only imagine it would be even more important.

 

[Jim Bob]

To be fair - nobody in this thread is suggesting a Deebo type move will happen. But the fact that it's being talked about/entertained by media personalities is embarrassing. I can only assume they are doing it for clicks.

I too see the team being in a very good position next offseason. But I'd hope that Beane would have learned his lesson with big moves (eg Miller) & just continues to do what he's good at.

It's way too early to think about next year's draft - but having that Minnesota R2 will give him more options than they had this year, for sure. Maybe they also get a R3 comp pick too?

I keep posting this - but I think you can look at the year KC had when they traded Hill, what they have done since & use that as a blueprint. No splashy FA signings or big moves in the draft - just extend your core guys, draft sensibly & fill out any other holes on your roster with short term FAs. Beane's great at doing all of these things.

I think there is a sizable portion of the fanbase that feels like a big time WR1 is a huge need and they want to dream about a splashy WR move happening.

Just like all the DHop/OBJ stuff last year. And with the Diggs trade, it is only making that stuff happen even more.

I like the approach that they took with this draft in general. There are a few day 3 picks that I think there was some opportunity cost stuff. I like Mahogany where he went. There were some WRs that fell. But, they had a plan and we just have to hope it works out.

And they drafted a bunch of good people. I think that was intentional, too.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Jim Bob]

It's way too early to think about next year's draft - but having that Minnesota R2 will give him more options than they had this year, for sure. Maybe they also get a R3 comp pick too?

Buffalo Bills Future Draft Pick Status

Compensatory Picks | Over the Cap

Compensatory Picks | Over the Cap

overthecap.com

So, here is what things look like today for 2025 picks:

1st - BUF
2nd - MIN, BUF
3rd - BUF
4th - CHI, BUF, [COMP - Davis]
5th - [COMP - Floyd]
6th - NYG, BUF
7th - [NONE]

As we saw this year, comp pick projections are an actual results may very type of thing.

 

[Jim Bob]

Biggest Day 3 steals of the 2024 NFL Draft | NFL Draft | PFF

Day 3 is when NFL teams build out the core of their rosters. Here were the top Day 3 steals of the 2024 NFL Draft based on PFF's big board.

www.pff.com

IOL SEDRICK VAN PRAN, BUFFALO BILLS​

• Draft slot: 141
• PFF big board rank: 100

A consistently dominant force for Georgia over the past three seasons, Van Pran has allowed just one sack and two quarterback hits across more than 1,400 pass-protection snaps. He peaked as a run blocker in 2023, posting a 76.9 grade in the Bulldogs’ multiple run scheme. With Mitch Morse out in Buffalo, there is a legitimate chance Van Pran pushes for a starting gig at center. At worst, he provides positional versatility across the interior.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

​

​

• RB Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I think there is a sizable portion of the fanbase that feels like a big time WR1 is a huge need and they want to dream about a splashy WR move happening.

Just like all the DHop/OBJ stuff last year. And with the Diggs trade, it is only making that stuff happen even more.

I like the approach that they took with this draft in general. There are a few day 3 picks that I think there was some opportunity cost stuff. I like Mahogany where he went. There were some WRs that fell. But, they had a plan and we just have to hope it works out.

And they drafted a bunch of good people. I think that was intentional, too.

Mahogany was one of the steals of the draft, maybe the biggest steal? But after getting Van Pran i don't think that pick would have been necessary.

I (like most others) thought a late round WR could have made sense. But that guy was never getting major reps or a big role (go back to our previous discussions on this) so it's almost moot.

I've made this point before in our previous debates - but i think Beane is higher on guys like Shorter/Hamler/Shavers than most of the fanbase is. That was basically proven to be true with their day 3 strategy.

 

[Husko]

Mahogany was one of the steals of the draft, maybe the biggest steal? But after getting Van Pran i don't think that pick would have been necessary.

I (like most others) thought a late round WR could have made sense. But that guy was never getting major reps or a big role (go back to our previous discussions on this) so it's almost moot.

I've made this point before in our previous debates - but i think Beane is higher on guys like Shorter/Hamler/Shavers than most of the fanbase is. That was basically proven to be true with their day 3 strategy.

How those three look in the offseason workouts might very well dictate whether he does go out and sign an insurance WR.

 

[Jim Bob]

Mahogany was one of the steals of the draft, maybe the biggest steal? But after getting Van Pran i don't think that pick would have been necessary.

I (like most others) thought a late round WR could have made sense. But that guy was never getting major reps or a big role (go back to our previous discussions on this) so it's almost moot.

I've made this point before in our previous debates - but i think Beane is higher on guys like Shorter/Hamler/Shavers than most of the fanbase is. That was basically proven to be true with their day 3 strategy.

Mahogany wouldn't have been necessary. But, I would have liked Mahogany over Grable or Devonshire or Rice over Clayton.

I get why they went with the guys that they did and it isn't like I have huge issues with who they took and where they took them. But, there are a few picks that I think could have been a little different.

But given their cap situation, I like the approach that they took in general. And you could see more of these guys make the 53 man roster than many expected going into the draft.

 

[HOOats]

Way too early final 53:

QB: Allen, Trubisky

RB: Cook, Davis, T Johnson, Gilliam (FB)

WR: Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, Hollins, X

(X = any number of guys currently on the roster, or a FA)

TE: Knox, Kincaid, Morris

OT: Dawkins, Brown, Collins, Van Demark

IOL: McGovern, Torrence, D Edwards, Van Pran, Clapp/Anderson

DL: Oliver, Jones, Carter, A Johnson, D Williams

EDGE: Rousseau, Epenesa, Miller, Solomon, X

(X = Toohill, Jonathan or a FA)

LB: Milano, Bernard, D Williams, Morrow, Spector/Ulofoshio

CB: Douglas, Benford, Elam, Ingram/FA

NB: T Johnson, Lewis

S: Rapp, M Edwards, Bishop, Hamlin

K: Bass

P: Any of the three guys on the roster

LS: Ferguson

KR/PR: Hardy

Offence: 23
Defence: 25
ST: 4
Total: 52

Plus one wild card (eg an extra WR, extra OL, etc).

Cam Lewis over Hamlin all day for me. He's a better, more versatile player. I'm also glad to move on from whatever it is the Hamlin feel-good story has morphed into. Wish him very well, but it's time imo.

 

[Husko]

Here's where I see the roster, broken down by locks / bubble players. Locks are determined based on level of investment, either financial of draft pick.

Offense

Position	Lock	Bubble
QB	Allen, Trubisky
RB	Cook, Davis, Gilliam	Johnson, Coleman
WR	Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, Hollins	Shorter, Shavers, Hamler, Isabella,
TE	Kincaid, Knox	Morris, McKitty
OT	Dawkins, Brown, Collins	Van Denmark, Doyle, Grable
IOL	Torrence, McGovern, Edwards, VPG	Clapp, Andersen

Total locks: 18

Defense / ST

Position	Lock	Bubble
DE	Groot, Miller, Epenesa, Solomon	Toohill, Jonathan
DT	Oliver, Jones, Austin, Carter	Williams, Ankou
LB	Bernard, Milano, Williams, Morrow, Ulofoshio	Spector
CB	Douglas, Benford, Elam	Ingram
NB/S	Johnson, Rapp, Edwards, Bishop, Lewis	Hamlin, Hardy (RET)
SPT	Bass, Punter, Reid

Total locks: 24

We can squabble over who belongs in lock versus bubble, but the general sentiment here is this is a very full roster, with 42 locks heading into the summer. Assuming we sign only 1 legit free agent, that would leave 10 spots total for the over 20 guys I have listed on the bubble columns. It's going to be a dog fight to make the roster with some brutal cuts.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

How those three look in the offseason workouts might very well dictate whether he does go out and sign an insurance WR.

I totally agree. I wouldn't expect any FA moves to happen the second White's cap money comes off the books. Makes sense when they're closer to the season.

I also think Cephus will factor into that mix too. He's not close to starter quality but he's likely still NFL WR5/6 quality. He got cut by Detroit for off field reasons, not because he was terrible.

Mahogany wouldn't have been necessary. But, I would have liked Mahogany over Grable or Devonshire or Rice over Clayton.

I get why they went with the guys that they did and it isn't like I have huge issues with who they took and where they took them. But, there are a few picks that I think could have been a little different.

But given their cap situation, I like the approach that they took in general. And you could see more of these guys make the 53 man roster than many expected going into the draft.

Clayton is different as he's essentially a free extra player. Taking a chance purely on his top 1% (or whatever they are) measurables is worthwhile, given that he won't count against roster limits like any other pick would do. Yes i am biased here.

Devonshire was a guy i thought they would take somewhere though, given where he was available, the work they had done on him pre draft & the possible need for a fourth boundary corner. Other than WR/DE, corner is the other position they could address via free agency.

We can all go back through the draft with hindsight & pick completely different players. But on the whole i thought it was a solid draft that addressed just about every need on the roster.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Cam Lewis over Hamlin all day for me. He's a better, more versatile player. I'm also glad to move on from whatever it is the Hamlin feel-good story has morphed into. Wish him very well, but it's time imo.

I already had Lewis listed as backup NB.

I see your point on Hamlin - but we know how much this team values character, locker room guys etc. He can still be a useful ST contributor too, which is something else they value.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Here's where I see the roster, broken down by locks / bubble players. Locks are determined based on level of investment, either financial of draft pick.

Offense

Position	Lock	Bubble
QB	Allen, Trubisky
RB	Cook, Davis, Gilliam	Johnson, Coleman
WR	Coleman, Samuel, Shakir, Hollins	Shorter, Shavers, Hamler, Isabella,
TE	Kincaid, Knox	Morris, McKitty
OT	Dawkins, Brown, Collins	Van Denmark, Doyle, Grable
IOL	Torrence, McGovern, Edwards, VPG	Clapp, Andersen

Total locks: 18

Defense / ST

Position	Lock	Bubble
DE	Groot, Miller, Epenesa, Solomon	Toohill, Jonathan
DT	Oliver, Jones, Austin, Carter	Williams, Ankou
LB	Bernard, Milano, Williams, Morrow, Ulofoshio	Spector
CB	Douglas, Benford, Elam	Ingram
NB/S	Johnson, Rapp, Edwards, Bishop, Lewis	Hamlin, Hardy (RET)
SPT	Bass, Punter, Reid

Total locks: 24

We can squabble over who belongs in lock versus bubble, but the general sentiment here is this is a very full roster, with 42 locks heading into the summer. Assuming we sign only 1 legit free agent, that would leave 10 spots total for the over 20 guys I have listed on the bubble columns. It's going to be a dog fight to make the roster with some brutal cuts.

Yeah - my locks are the same as yours plus Ty Johnson, minus Ulofoshio.

Not many roster spots to battle for.

Regarding FAs - as well as potentially adding another WR or EDGE, i could also see them adding a fourth boundary corner and/or a legitimate NT/1T. That would make it even more competitive.

 

[Jim Bob]

Clayton is different as he's essentially a free extra player. Taking a chance purely on his top 1% (or whatever they are) measurables is worthwhile, given that he won't count against roster limits like any other pick would do. Yes i am biased here.

Devonshire was a guy i thought they would take somewhere though, given where he was available, the work they had done on him pre draft & the possible need for a fourth boundary corner. Other than WR/DE, corner is the other position they could address via free agency.

We can all go back through the draft with hindsight & pick completely different players. But on the whole i thought it was a solid draft that addressed just about every need on the roster.

I get why they took Clayton. I'm just saying that there was an opportunity cost to not risking the bet that he would make it to UDFA and you could convince him to sign in Buffalo.

It's not a huge criticism, as much as something that I could see as a down the road hindsight is 20/20 type thing is all.

 

[Husko]

Re Hamlin, he'll be competing for one of the last few spots on the team. Rather than thinking of him as competing with Lewis (who I think is a lock with his NB/S flexibility), I'd be thinking of him as competing against Spector, Hardy, Shorter, etc. for special teams spots.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Krieger Bot]

This is where I'm settling in. Coleman wasn't my first choice, but I get what they're going for. Teams have been playing man underneath while keeping 2 safeties high against the Bills, and it's quietly really hampered their ability to generate big plays. I suspect they're going to attack that by trying to generate lots of YAC with guys like Samuel and Coleman, while relying on guys like Kincaid and Shakir to move the chains. Similar to an offense like SF. Except that we'll sprinkle in more deep shots with Allen playing out of structure. We also won't run it as much, as we don't have McCaffrey or their OL.

Reading up on Coleman more and I'm a bit disappointed in what I'm seeing re his yac skills. Seems like more of a Davis replacement/hopefully an upgrade due to his strength and 50-50 ball skills.

They have an interesting mix of skills at receiver. Coleman as their physical, deep ball threat. Samuel as their yac guy. And kincaid/Shakir as their route running specialists/ consistent chain movers. There's definitely some risk in their plan (can Coleman win vertically at the next level with below average speed? Can one of samuel or Shakir move outside and beat press coverage despite below average size?) But it's an intriguing mix that could be better than people expect if Beane bet on the right guys.

 

[Jim Bob]

That wrestling question and answer cracked me up.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[TageGod]

Loving Coleman pick so far. He is pretty quick for that size off the line compared to Davis. Can see him being their Money guy on third and short.

I didn't think too much about a second WR, would have gotten one in 5th round or so. Beane does not value WR's high in early rounds. To think he went from 4th/5th or later WR drafts to a first, be happy.

 

[brian_griffin]

151. Edefuan Ulofoshio, LB, Washington (6-0, 236)​

Ulofoshio might have a capped ceiling in the NFL, but he has overachieved at every other level because of his football instincts and active play style. He has the “all-in” mentality of a core special teamer who can make a living covering kicks while competing for defensive snaps.

Dude is from Anchorage, Alaska, which gets ~75" snowfall/year, compared to Buffalo's 95-100".

This I can get behind. If he was 6’2 or 6’3 he’d be a 2nd rounder.

(and)

Really like the pick, I've really been wanting a designate pass rusher type. Hopefully they find some creative ways to deploy him.

(and)

That’s my favorite pick of the draft so far, in terms of value and need. I love Solomon. Short, but has long arms, which means he’ll have leverage AND linemen not be able to get into his pads. Led the FBS in sacks last year.

Any reason to believe he can cover a TE in drop-back on certain D-schemes, or is that the wrong usage?

3 punters on the camp roster seems excessive.

Maybe the Bills did it just for kicks? <ducks>

I never evaluated him off his dad, and even guys like Brugler had him rated way higher than a 7th.

Teams have access to interviews, and talk to people around the team. Brugler doesn’t really have that access. And fans don’t have that access at all.

If teams didn’t like his attitude, then that makes sense.

Jerry wasn't in his life too much, allegedly. But you have to believe the money was flowing in for support... so wonder if there could be concerns about either entitlement attitude or other things (which I intentionally won't mention given site rules re: unsubstantiated comments/posts).