Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[kylbaz]

Interesting idea. Sometimes I wonder about Lowry at 2C. He's not a complete black hole offensively. If Ehlers doest get dealt, I'd look at:

Ehlers Schief Vilardi
Connor Lowry Perfetti
Nino Lambert Iafallo
Barron Names Appleton

If Ehlers does get dealt, I think I'd bump Nino into the top six, Barron to 3LW and Kupari onto the 4th

I'd like to see one more year in the AHL for Chibs, then graduate him and Salomonsson the next season

Edit: after thinking about it for a sec, I think the org has a pretty good handle on who the top 6 will be next season (with and/or without Ehlers) and that probably factored into Rutger going back to college (as in there isn't a spot for him there)

If Lowry is our 2c we're in a world of trouble

 

[Gm0ney]

A lot of debate of if the Jets need to do a youth movement. But to put it in a little perspective all the teams still alive in the playoffs are all very veteran teams including Dallas, who just happens to also have 3 exceptional players in the 21-24 y/o range as well (Heiskanen, Robertson, Johnson). Dallas actually has the same average age as the Jets, but our closest compatibles to the above in the same younger age range is Samberg, Vilardi and Perfetti. While good players they aren't in the same category of skill level. If the Jets had the same caliber of younger players, no doubt they would be given key roles. Giving bigger roles to lesser players won't make them top pairing defensmen or 100 point wingers.

39 year olds Pavelski and Suter kind of drag the average age up. Plus Dadanov is 35 and Benn, Tanev and Smith are all 34. And at the other end they've got Johnston, Harley, Robertson, Oettinger, Stankoven and Heiskanen all playing big minutes. Their roster is either old or young...

The oldest Jet - Dillon - would be 7th oldest on the Stars. Johnston and Stankoven are both younger than Perfetti. Then Harley, Lindqvist and Dellandrea would be younger than anyone on the Jets aside from Perfetti.

 

[Gm0ney]

If Lowry is our 2c we're in a world of trouble

 

[JetsFan815]

1. I think you're overestimating his impact on the team as a whole
2. A lot depends on what we get back for him

Losing one top 6 guy shouldn't completley cripple us. Much of his production could be made up for with a respectable power play. Add that to the production of his replacement (which won't be zero) and the potential upgrading of the defense if that's the return

It's not like he's McDavid

I like Ehlers too but he's done nothing in the playoffs for us. I would like to keep him but if we could get a number 2 defenseman for him i think you do it.

We are getting a 1st round pick, a prospect and Beauvillier level winger for Ehlers. No way we get a #2 dman or an NHL player with similar impact.

 

[bumblebeeman]

11 fwds are signed, with 2 unsigned RFAs, and excluding Monahan who I think they want to bring back to shore up 2C.

How many of these signed players do you foresee getting dealt?

Not sure if I'd predict a mass amount of trades tbh.

Good point. Well I guess Ehlers is being discussed, and maybe Iafallo could be moved tho he has very little value I think. It'll be interesting what happens with Gus and Kupari, they are both ok but I'm not sure what they really add to the team.

 

[Gm0ney]

What Ehlers brings to the team is going to be difficult to replace (playoffs aside). Better hope the new(?) coaching staff fixes the special teams, because 5v5 could be taking a hit without him.

 

[WolfHouse]

Interesting idea. Sometimes I wonder about Lowry at 2C. He's not a complete black hole offensively. If Ehlers doest get dealt, I'd look at:

Ehlers Schief Vilardi
Connor Lowry Perfetti
Nino Lambert Iafallo
Barron Names Appleton

If Ehlers does get dealt, I think I'd bump Nino into the top six, Barron to 3LW and Kupari onto the 4th

I'd like to see one more year in the AHL for Chibs, then graduate him and Salomonsson the next season

Edit: after thinking about it for a sec, I think the org has a pretty good handle on who the top 6 will be next season (with and/or without Ehlers) and that probably factored into Rutger going back to college (as in there isn't a spot for him there)

Gus deserves a spot more than kupari

I don't think it will happen but it would be nice to see iafallo and kupari packaged with pionk or ehlers for a roster player

 

[Maukkis]

If Ehlers leaves and unless one of the younger players makes a leap forward. The Jets could be thrown back to the stone age of 20-22 Jets, forget playoffs, the regular season might be in danger.

Yet when asked about it, not a single person suggesting an Ehlers trade can come up with a plan to replace Nik's ability to drive play. Without 27, the base scenario should be that the top 6 be an unmitigated disaster next year. I mean, look at this shit!

Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi
XXX - XXX (Monahan?) - XXX
Niederreiter - Lowry - XXX (Apps?)
I - Don't - Care

At the absolute minimum, we'd have a proven dogshit first line with KC and Scheifele playing 20 a night, and the second line may or may not have top 6 talent on it in any position (can't fully predict it with all the UFAs). The third won't produce any offense again with Lowry leading the way, and I've lost all hope with regards to the fourth getting a chance to do much. Fill in the gaps using Cole, Iafallo (barf), Names (top 6 material here), or some of the rookies. You won't make the playoffs, that's for sure.

It would take a gigantic leap from Perfetti to mitigate 25% of the void that Ehlers would leave behind, and we're talking about a guy who was pressboxed a month ago.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Yet when asked about it, not a single person suggesting an Ehlers trade can come up with a plan to replace Nik's ability to drive play. Without 27, the base scenario should be that the top 6 be an unmitigated disaster next year.

At the absolute minimum, we'd have a proven dogshit first line with KC and Scheifele playing 20 a night, and the second line may or may not have top 6 talent on it in any position (can't fully predict it with all the UFAs). The third won't produce any offense again, and I've lost all hope with regards to the fourth getting a chance to do much. It would take a gigantic leap from Perfetti to mitigate 25% of the void that Ehlers would leave behind, and we're talking about a guy who was pressboxed a month ago.

Yeah, I get Ehlers was bad in the playoffs but it seems like everyone is forgetting he is by far our best 5v5 forward during the regular season.

I get wanting to move on due to playoff reasons, but losing him is going to make us a worse team in almost every realistic scenario.

 

[DRW204]

Good point. Well I guess Ehlers is being discussed, and maybe Iafallo could be moved tho he has very little value I think. It'll be interesting what happens with Gus and Kupari, they are both ok but I'm not sure what they really add to the team.

It's just never been this team's history to start wheeling and dealing ufa-1s an offseason early.

We all theorize about it but until I think it happens with some frequency idk if I will be expecting it.

 

[surixon]

Yeah, I get Ehlers was bad in the playoffs but it seems like everyone is forgetting he is by far our best 5v5 forward during the regular season.

I get wanting to move on due to playoff reasons, but losing him is going to make us a worse team in almost every realistic scenario.

The issue is that he can walk in a year and I doubt he would want to come back so we pretty much have to recoup whatever value we can from him.

He will most certainly be tough to replace but I'll wait and see what transpires in the offseason before I go as far as to say our top 6 is doomed. Many thought we'd take a step back moving Dubois last year and we got better for instance.

 

[Maukkis]

Yeah, I get Ehlers was bad in the playoffs but it seems like everyone is forgetting he is by far our best 5v5 forward during the regular season.

I get wanting to move on due to playoff reasons, but losing him is going to make us a worse team in almost every realistic scenario.

A lot of posters are so terrified of another playoff disappointment that they'd rather miss the playoffs entirely. SMH.

And even if you somehow could make a, let's say Nino-Monahan-Perfetti work adequately at 5v5 as your second line, you're tying your two best (remaining) line drivers on that line - you can likely put together a very defensive third line that remains over 50% in xGF, but are you going to get 30 ES points from the guys playing 16 minutes a night without Nino? And on top of that issue, you still have to deal with the first line getting its teeth kicked in at evens. If your top two lines don't do much at 5v5 (let alone top three), it's going to be all special teams (which don't work) and Hellebuyck (who likely won't improve from here). To me, that sounds like a bubble team at best.

Obviously, all of these issues can occur with Ehlers in the lineup - it has certainly happened before. But the point is that if we don't even have him as an option to fix broken line combos, which he has proven to do even single-handedly, many of those issues will be a base scenario for the team.

 

[Buffdog]

We are getting a 1st round pick, a prospect and Beauvillier level winger for Ehlers. No way we get a #2 dman or an NHL player with similar impact.

You misread my post

His replacement (could even be internal) puts up at least 40 points

Improved power play results in 15 more goals

His return chips in 15 more points

That's your 60 points from Ehlers and we don't skip a beat

Gus deserves a spot more than kupari

I don't think it will happen but it would be nice to see iafallo and kupari packaged with pionk or ehlers for a roster player

Good point with Gus. I knew I was forgetting someboday

 

[Gm0ney]

You misread my post

His replacement (could even be internal) puts up at least 40 points

Improved power play results in 15 more goals

His return chips in 15 more points

That's your 60 points from Ehlers and we don't skip a beat


Good point with Gus. I knew I was forgetting someboday

Hey, look who's playing Moneyball - maybe we can replace Ehlers in the aggregate!

 

[Buffdog]

Hey, look who's playing Moneyball - maybe we can replace Ehlers in the aggregate!

But can we replace his xGF%?

We all know that's what REALLY matters

 

[Flair Hay]

Man a lot of the discourse about Ehlers is true. Not good in the playoffs largely. Not productive especially. Combine that with his younger years and the puzzle pieces we have don't indicate it's getting better...

I do have some optimism he is not a lost cause for post season going forward. Not sure how emotional that is vs logical in my head yet...

I worry about his impact being understated due to flaws in his game, the same way so many wanted Buff gone in 2012-2016 (guilty myself). And now without him it's like, oh crap we are never getting that thing he brings back.

 

[Vinther]

I just hope that improvement in the special teams, can buy some time for a new coach to figure out how our 5v5 should work.
I would be great if we can get a system were we can win in the regular season, but still have room to improve in intensity for the post season.
also a "solution" to the 3rd line getting ice time as a 2nd line would be nice, no matter how much I like Lowry